The Virginia Mess and the Establishment’s Gambit

Rigged for Romney?

I would ask my readers to look around.  You’re being herded, and if you haven’t noticed it yet, you should begin to notice something odd about the events in Virginia, and more, the happenings in the media.  At present, there are to be only two valid candidates on the Virginia Republican primary ballot for the presidential nomination: Willard “Mitt” Romney, and Ron Paul.  All of the others have been disqualified for insufficient valid petition signatures, and while there is a controversy arising surrounding the validity of signatures for Gingrich and a potential recount, what’s clear is that some sort of monkey business is going on.  There are those who are seeking to use this as an opportunity to build a write-in campaign for Sarah Palin, but the question is then whether those ballots would themselves be valid.

The idea is to deny Virginia’s convention delegates to Romney, but this approach using a write-in candidate may not be a valid method.  If so, this would cause voters to throw their votes away, and more, would still guarantee Romney the delegates.  As all of this goes on, the all-out war in the media against Ron Paul has gone nuclear.  There can be only one reason for this timing, and it’s really quite simple:  The establishment knows that they must make Ron Paul so thoroughly unpalatable to mainstream conservatives and Tea Party types that the people of Virginia will not support him as a protest vote against Romney.

I’ve been looking at some of the suggested approaches by grass-roots types to stave off a Romney win in Virginia by agitating a write-in campaign.  Since Virginia is a winner-take-all state, where any candidate who gets more than half the votes will walk away with all of the delegates to the national convention, the only way the votes are apportioned is if no candidate manages to make 50%.  With only Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in the race as valid candidates, somebody is going to make 50%, because it would take at least a three-way race to prevent that outcome.  What the proponents of the write-in campaign are suggesting is that a write-in that would siphon votes primarily from Romney would enable an apportionment, and at least prevent Romney from walking away with all of Virginia’s delegates.  The problem is that the question of how such write-in ballots would be treated.  They may be discarded, and therefore not count in the total, making no difference whatever to the final percentages, and presumably, the Romney-takes-all scenario.

There is only one method that is certain to deny Romney the delegates that will be awarded in Virginia, and it’s the only way I can see under the law that this is possible: Virginia Republicans would need to choose Ron Paul, giving him all of the delegates.  Now this may be distasteful to some, as Congressman Paul’s record on foreign policy is pretty hard to swallow, but that’s not the question that now rests on the table before Virginia’s primary voters.  The question is:  Are you satisfied being denied your choice for the Republican nomination by the establishment that so thoroughly dominates Virginia’s Republican party?  If you’re in Virginia, and you’re a supporter of Bachmann, Huntsman, or Santorum, you know your candidates did not even make a serious effort to get on the ballot.  Have you asked “why?”  If you’re a Gingrich or Perry Supporter(and Gingrich still polls as the front-runner in Virginia,) you might want to know why there was a rule change to the method by which petition signatures were validated just for this election cycle.

Here’s the thing you must understand, however: If you’re left with the choice of Ron Paul and Willard “Mitt” Romney, choosing the latter helps him defeat the candidate you prefer in the overall delegate count necessary to win the nomination.  Consider it another way:  If you sit home, saying “screw the primary,” out of disgust and dejection, you’re not choosing Romney, but you’re not voting against him, either.  If you go to the polls and reluctantly support him, you’re killing off the chance that Gingrich or any of the others will be nominated.  If you go to the polls and support Ron Paul, you’re voting against Romney, you’re voting for a candidate who will not likely get the nomination, and if he wins all the delegates, it hurts Romney much more than it helps Ron Paul.

This is why the flurry of stories about Ron Paul have been going viral these last few days:  They must make Ron Paul unacceptable to you, so that you don’t support him as a form of protest vote.  I’m not suggesting to you that Paul’s statements make him palatable, because they don’t.  I’m not telling you Ron Paul should get the nomination, because I don’t believe that he should, particularly based on his foreign policy views.  What I’m telling you is that if you want to derail Romney, Ron Paul presents the best vehicle for so doing, at least in Virginia.  In other words, I’m not suggesting you nominate Ron Paul, but I’m asking you to think strategically like those in the establishment have been doing. If you want any candidate other than Willard, this may be the only way to stop him.

Put it this way, if you like:  If Gingrich and Romney battle closely in states where delegates are apportioned, it will be close, but if either candidate captures significant states where the rules are “winner take all,” that upsets the balance, and the race becomes a blow-out.  Since there are now to be only two candidates on the ballot in Virginia, it is guaranteed that one of them will get all the delegates to the convention.  If it’s Romney, it’s almost certain to sew up the nomination for him. If you’re a supporter of any of the non-Romney candidates, Virginia now offers him the opportunity to finish your candidate’s chances of capturing the nomination.

With so many states having yielded half their delegates to the national party in order to move their primaries up to an earlier date on the calendar, it was already going to be difficult to defeat the establishment GOP’s will in this contest.  You can bet all of those additional at-large delegates will wind up supporting whomever the party insiders decide should be the nominee.  That’s right, you’ve been hosed, again, and this is why for those of you in Virginia who don’t like Romney, but also can’t stand Paul, it’s time for you to join the world of making choices from the point of view of the “big picture.”  It’s therefore a simple matter at present, and assuming Gingrich is unable to get his name on the Virginia ballot,  voting for anybody other than Ron Paul effectively gives Mitt Romney the nomination, despite roughly 75% of the party finding him to be something between poor and completely unacceptable.

It’s a bitter pill to swallow, and I realize walking into the voting booth and holding one’s nose while throwing the lever for Ron Paul seems unacceptable to many, but let’s be blunt:  That may be the only chance you, or anybody else in this country has to affect the outcome of this process in any substantial way.  It’s been rigged, and by now you should know it, and if you don’t, it’s time to wake up.  Otherwise, the “inevitable nominee” will be, and you’ll spend the fall wondering why we’re losing to a jerk like Obama.  If Romney wins the nomination, think “Bob Dole,” and remember how well he did.  Romney will fare no better.

Like Be the first one who likes this post!
  • http://gravatar.com/patriotichearts patriotichearts

    Your theory sounds convoluted enough to be exactly how the GOP establishment is working to rig the primary for Romney. However, remembering my protest vote for Perot in '92 and how that got Clinton elected and set this country on the road to ruin, I'm not likely to play those odds again. I will regret to my dying day the part I played in getting Alinksyites into our beloved White House and ensconced in the seat of power. Of course Obama is cut from the same cloth; we're in a hell of a pickle now. The GOP is far off course and third party would mean certain re-election of Obama. I believe traditional conservative Tea Party candidates are the only answer to saving this country, and taking back our Republican party, but don't know how to fight the entrenched GOP establishment. Sarah Palin was my ideal candidate, but the odds were too long for her to defeat Obama, the DNC, the RNC and the media (right and left). Our shining city on the hill is losing it's luster and scares the hell out of this baby boomer.

  • http://twitter.com/BDWatcher bdwatcher (@BDWatche

    I know. If there is a true evil, it is upon us now. I only hope everyone has their eyes open. We have less than one year of Stratego with real people and real lives. There is no turning back now, we see the end result of another 4 years of betrayal. I hope everyone has their eyes open.

  • bellagrazi

    Are you saying that these candidates that did not qualify for the VA primary are throwing this election? I don't believe that. Campaigning is way too hard. None of these people would've thrown their hat in the ring only to give the nom to Romney. They're all incompetent. Period. Which is even a sadder fact. I say let the Republican Party implode. I don't give a bleep anymore. They had the perfect candidate in Sarah Palin, and they biffed it. I'm out.

  • Dave

    I still say Ron Paul is a better alternative than you think. Even if you don't think his foreign policy passes muster, his other policies and constitutionalist positions make him much better than any of the other choices.

    • http://gravatar.com/teacher35years Voter

      AGREED!

    • Puma for Life

      I agree with you. The more I learn about Paul's positions, the more I agree with him. This portrayal of him on many conservative sites as the "crazy, loony uncle" sounds prefabricated to me; too many people saying the same thing. I think they are trolls for the establishment, both GOP and Dem.

      I was a strong Palin supporter, but she chose not to run, so I have been observing. I tend to support non-establishment candidates and Ron Paul is the only one left running right now. His foreign policy is not as extreme as it is made to sound by the MSM. I would have no problem voting for him.

  • MiBones

    My thoughts exactly. We are not only sending a message to the Democratic Party, but to the GOP, also. I do not live in VA, but if I did, I would vote for Ron Paul. It's time to draw a line in the sand. We do not want a RINO and we should use every strategy to keep him from winning.

  • Marvin "Lee&quo

    OK let me see if I hear ya right. The VA GOP has hijacked the primary in that state (Not a reach for me at all) And your plan to counter this is to try to get VA to vote for Ron Paul (to correct the wrong and deny Romney the delegates) I would think of the folks who would not otherwise vote for Ron Paul would be unlikely to vote for him for that reason. Gerrymandering to cancel out gerrymandering is an insane concept (not impossible, improbable maybe, but none the less insane) OK lets say you get away with it and Ron Paul gets the delegates. We go into a brokered convention and Ron Paul doesn't have a snowball's chance in July by that time. Now the fate of those delegates is in the hands of Ron Paul, Not you and not the good people of Virginia. What will you have accomplished?

    • http://www.markamerica.com MarkAmerica

      Well Lee, I would say that to deny the delegates to Romney would be a good goal at this point. I'm not entirely sure why you think it's insane. After all, if this is what the party establishment wants, but the base of the party clearly does not, how do you wish for the base to express their will? Should they just accept Romney and shuffle off quietly?

      • Puma for Life

        My observation of what conservatives do is allow themselves to be manipulated by the MSM (the whole time exclaiming that they will not allow the MSM to tell them who their candidate should be…I cite Cain and Paul as examples) and then when the Romney or Cain get the nomination they don't vote because they will not allow themselves to be manipulated and then the Dems (Obama)win. Then the conservatives complain for four years as the country is taken down and do the same thing all over again at the first opportunity. Conservatives like to lose is my conclusion. I'm glad I found this site; I like your thinking.

      • Marvin "Lee&quo

        I'll answer that question. I think that it is insane because the odds of getting a majority of the American voters (beyond the GOP) to elect Ron Paul is unreasonable. Now, you get to a brokered convention and neither you nor the good people of Virginia have control of the hijacked delegates. What have you accomplished? You are willing to effectively insure the party's loss in the general election just to show the establishment that you can? That is the problem with the tea party now. They would rather smash the ship of state upon the rocks and rebuild it in their image afterwards. Pushing yourself away from the table will never serve your agenda.

  • Janm

    Agreed. We need to send a clear message to the GOP establishment. It's no longer business as usual. They need to know the Tea Party types are still out here and we're not going away. It's the only chance we have in this country.

    • Marvin "Lee&quo

      A clear message that you will destroy the party before you compromise sounds like the "My way or the hi-way" position that you claim that the establishement is forcing on you. Compromise is not a dirty word. It is a fact of life. If you are unwilling to find a middle ground within your own party you will never find a middle ground with the general public. You have a seat at the table, if you give that away, what do you have?

      • http://roguepolitics.com Robert

        Murkowski and scuzzy up in NY were my way or the hi-way. That's the rules the establishment lays before us.
        And historically we chicken out and they win again. After 100+ years of getting our tails kicked maybe we should start calling them out on it.

  • Mary Busch

    I trust Ron Paul more than I trust the establishment Republicans. It's a long shot, but it may be the best option true conservatives have. To throw in the towel thus early in the election cycle is more insane than at least trying to fight.