2016: What’s the Point?

I hear and read endless speculation about this one and that one, and who’s in and who’s out, always superseded by the next day’s news, and always bereft of any measurable facts.  All of this can be both entertaining and frustrating.  All of it may be altogether pointless.  You see, the country is dying now.  By the time a new president is inaugurated in January of 2017, on our present course, it may not make any difference.  The country may be closing in on that tipping point, if we haven’t passed it already, at which nothing will be done to save us, irrespective of party, principles, or propaganda.  Our nation is deathly ill, if not terminal, and yet the politicians continue to chatter on as though there’s no end in sight.  Ignoring the stock market, which is many thousands of points over-valued due to cheap money practices at the Federal Reserve, this economy is a wreck.  As always, I urge my readers exercise care in what they believe or are willing to consider plausible.  In this post, I intend to revisit a topic I haven’t covered in a long while, because I think you ought to consider it.  The subject is the very real possibility of a hyperinflationary great depression that will make the 1930s look like a day at the beach.

As a reference to what hyperinflation looks like, here’s a graph of the infamous hyperinflation in the German Weimar Republic:

German Hyperinflation 1918-1924 (Wikipedia)

Long-time readers will remember I have used John Williams’ ShadowStats website as a reference in the past.  The nature of Mr. Williams’ warning hasn’t change, except to become substantially more strident inasmuch as such a calamity now seems to be possible at any moment.  For those of you who don’t remember, here was his Hyperinflation forecast of 2012:

2012 Hyperinflation Special Report(pdf format)

In 2014, Mr. Williams has updated his report, once in January, with a second installment in April. Here are links to these two in PDF format as well:

Hyperinflation 2014 – The End Game Begins

2014 Hyperinflation Special Report, Second Installment

 In these reports, Mr. Williams goes to extraordinary lengths to describe to you what I’ve told you right along, since the birth of this website:  Any alleged “economic recovery” was a fraud, and the nation is in deepening financial and economic trouble. Naturally, it’s not as though you hadn’t suspected it on your own, the obvious signs being what they are, but with the drumbeat of media, many people are soothed into complacency over a long enough time such that they begin to doubt what their own eyes and wallets are telling them.  In these most recent installments, Williams goes into great detail, putting numbers to the assumptions, providing actual data to support his conclusions.  In this sense, it is time for another reality check, because while the bulk of the people you know may well be ignoring hard reporting, in favor of popular media garbage, somebody ought to be warning them.   Chances are that being the good citizens most readers here tend to be, and being the sort of people who are trying to save their nation from disaster, you’ve been warning them right along.  Now, when they dismiss your warnings, you can dare them to read these reports.

If you’re among that number of people who are desirous of dismissing all of this as “Chicken Little” talk, I’d dare you directly.  Read these reports and if you aren’t at least a bit concerned, concerned enough to learn more, there’s no reaching you anyway.  In 2011, Sarah Palin and others were sounding the alarm.  She was ridiculed and mocked,  but the hard data supported her warnings.  All along, I’ve been warning you of the dangers of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and the grotesque expenditures of the Federal Government.  In the years since 2008, when this latest crisis began, the Fed has borrowed into existence a sum approaching(if not exceeding) fifty trillion dollars.

All of this money-printing or “digitizing” will necessarily lead to a calamity of unprecedented scale.  There can be no escape from the laws of economics, any more than there can be an escape from the law of gravity.  The only question is: When? As Mr. Williams points out in his report, the conditions are already in place.  It’s simply a matter of triggers.  With that in mind, I’d ask my readers to prepare to the extent they are able.

Some will argue that all of this is tantamount to alarmist fear-mongering.  but Williams does offer this, in his second installment for 2014:

“Conceivably, immediate massive and fiscally painful action by the federal government to restore and maintain long-range U.S. government solvency still could avoid the looming dollar collapse, but the related political issues appear now to have been pushed off until after the 2014 midterm election, again, as those controlling the government continue to push politically-difficult choices and actions as far into the future as possible. That has been explicitly demonstrated in actions by both the White House and Congress in the last several years. Nonetheless, despite political efforts to dodge the issues, the U.S. dollar and the deficit do matter, and the looming financial storm likely will break before the election.”

In other words, getting our financial and fiscal house in order could still serve to avoid this calamity, but as he notes, and as we are all too aware, the probability of that being done is low. The question isn’t “Will there be pain?” The real question is whether it will be pain we choose while we maintain the ability to moderate it, or an uncontrolled and apocalyptic pain from which there will be no recovery.  We’re very much like a stage four cancer patient in that only the most radical treatments have any chance of saving us, and the chemotherapy and radiation will be so severe and thorough as to inflict more pain than we might want to endure, but failing to choose this, the results are known and unavoidable.

I have significant doubts as to whether there exists the political will to induce pain via the radical treatments necessary.  The politicians in Washington DC are hoping to stave-off this calamity through the current election cycle.  I believe this is folly, but I also know they’re banking on the notion that they will be able to deal with this after the election, but you and I know the truth: There’s always another election.  The dust will still be settling from the 2014 election when the first real moves for 2016 begin.  They will already begin to make the political calculi about how to survive through the next election, or how to save the next election for their respective parties, but none of them will be thinking about any of this. The truth is that saving the nation will be furthest from their minds.

We have a president who is a functional economic illiterate, driven by dogma of a failed ideology.  We have a Congress driven by short-run notions of self-preservation of their power.  We have a people who possess a low tolerance for bad news in good times, and a complete intolerance for self-imposed discipline particularly where it implies any sort of pain.  It’s time to consider what all of this will combine to create in the coming years, if you haven’t done the math already. People are talking about 2016 like that represents some sort of panacea, but ladies and gentlemen, our nation may not make it until 2016.

 Editor’s note: I realize that the linked reports from John Williams’ site constitute a fair bit of reading, but like most issues, the devils lie in the details. Understanding the roots of our impending calamity, and the historical precedents as well as the actual manipulations of statistics by the current regime are critical in understanding what is afoot. While it’s a lot of reading, it’s entirely worthwhile.

Note 2: There was an error in the links to the two 2014 reports. These have been fixed.

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  • the unit

    I have a long way to go reading the 2012 hyperinflation link.
    When I click on the 2014 and the update links, I’m taken to two your older articles, not Williams. Maybe I’m doing something wrong.

    • http://www.markamerica.com/ Mark America

      Unit,

      Good catch! Not sure why that happened, but it’s fixed now. The links should get you to the pdfs on shadowstats.com

      Thanks!

  • Kelly Patton

    With that in mind, I’d ask my readers to prepare to the extent they are able.

    I believe you, Mark, so I am revisiting the doomsday prep Glenn Beck talked about years ago; Guns, Gold, Food, Alcohol to barter, ……. any advice for paycheck to paycheck readers who believe you? Ready for the Rapture or for us to just ??? (die??)
    Is there ANY hope?

    • RebinTexas

      Kelly – only being as prepared as we can be…..constant daily prayers to God individually and jointly with others…..we’re all in this boat……….including many who don’t think so…….

  • RebinTexas

    Wish I could disagree with you Mark…..but I’ve been saying much the same for quite a while now……….and with your help in introducing me to Mr Williams, I’ve learned more…..maybe more than I wanted to know….you are fatalistically on the Mark I fear…

  • the unit

    Of course I have not completely read all linked. Doubt I’ll be able too. Or understand it all.
    As to prepare…survivalist ads and websites selling provisions are available.
    In ’99 I did it all for Y2K. Did everything except move to ol’ Rocky Top.
    Can’t do that, no more, no more, no more, no more. I can just be down by the riverside, and vote. Hopefully it won’t be no more, no more, no more, no more.

    • http://www.markamerica.com/ Mark America

      The funny thing is, Y2k reinforced the precisely wrong behavior. Why? Because nothing [too much] happened. Why did nothing [too much] happen? Was Y2K a hoax? No, not at all. Working in the field as I do, I can witness to you that governments and businesses took extraordinary measures in the two years leading up to the rollover and it was this…not the lack of a threat… that enabled us to avoid the worst possible problems. You should have seen all the service packs, updates, patches, and other software fixes(and not a few hardware fixes, too) that went on in those last two years. It was almost pandemonium within the field, in certain respects, and while by the time New Year’s eve rolled around, most were satisfied they had done all they could do, most worried about the “other guys” and whether everybody had been at least as diligent.

      You have no idea how many IT managers,CEOs, agency heads, and other responsible parties were puckered on that occasion.

      This led far too many to believe it had all been much ado about nothing. It wasn’t, and all of those who took that misunderstanding forward are now primed to be blasted by the next real disaster we are unable to avoid.

      • the unit

        I’m sure Mark. I just mean I can’t do it again in my seventies. I did it all, wheat and oats in 30 gal containers, sealed with nitrogen gas pumped in and openings sealed before regular air re-entered. Grinder to make bread. Couple of 100 gal propane tanks. 300 gallons of gasoline. So maybe now unable to avoid, also unable to prepare again. I’ll just have to rely on faith for this one. If don’t work, then my time has come, when it comes.
        You got new reason on Father’s day to fight. I still have that stuff that was to protect my preparedness. It hasn’t spoiled and will be available although of course local. I believe blessing come from above and not the false Messiah in D.C.

        • CC

          What’s up UNC?

          • the unit

            I not know CC. Never had the problem. You on National Security Agency no fly list? lol
            Try again. You mention you may have some disqus problem. But you here now.

            • CC

              I wanted to wish Mark Happy returns and check on his family.I hope the comment will show up a I didn’t copy and paste it like I should knowing Disqusted!

              • the unit

                It might still. At our other place my immediate post sometimes take a few hours to show up. Don’t know who moderating.
                It is at disqus.

              • CC

                I mentioned WG’s site by it’s formal name and that’s probably what triggered the cancellation.Just replied to Mark again and it went through.

        • CC

          I made an earlier post,but it has to pass b4 customs I guess?

      • CC

        Mark,I will try again,just wanted to welcome you back and hope you and your family are doing well.Uncle Unit (And I have adopted him as my Uncle) have been posting a lot to each on another site which may have been the reason why my first post didn’t go through b/c I mentioned her DOT com site.It’s a fun site that I invited TU as we like to call him that doesn’t talk politics but music mostly and mostly RocknRoll.I hope your wife is feeling better.I lost mine back in May of this year and lost my Mom almost a year ago,so it’s just me here by my lonesome and want to hook back up with my Conservative friends.How are you doing?

        • the unit

          Yep. Bet you hear from M.A. before long. Enjoy with you over there and will here as well.

          • CC

            He’s a VERY busy young man!

            • the unit

              Yeah, not like me retired. Important job and not always available to comment. But you will hear from him. Yeah and young!

              • CC

                I’m retired too!Too young to be retired though.I should be working at 53.Back and liver says no though.

              • the unit

                But you might have years left, Zeke won’t come looking for you ’til 75 and heck he’ll be only be 64. Y’all can have a beer summit. lol

  • Section 9

    One of the reasons I’ve been so frustrated with Palin is that she has so obviously decided to refrain from getting in this race this cycle. And then it hit me only very recently: why should she?

    As you rightly point out, we are very much in a pre-Weimar environment. Should she win a race against Clinton, she would be President when the SHTF, and it would be in no ones’ interest in the Ruling Class to help her out. She probably gets the same stock and economic letters that you do, or a variant of the same. There’s no way Palin wants to run for office in this environment, not with this freight train headed at her. Let Obama play the role of Hoover. Let Jeb Bush play the role of Mellon.

    Much better for her to be around to pick up the pieces after the present Ruling Class loses all legitimacy, if that is at all possible.

    • JohnInFlorida

      While it may be “Much better for her to be around to pick up the pieces …” the question is still:
      What pieces will remain? A question I’m at a loss to answer.

  • CC

    WOW,IT’S SO WONDERFUL to have you back Mark.Uncle Unit told me that you made a few new stories.I HOPE everything is going well in your family.He told me your wife was sick and I’m very sorry to hear that.Unit has been posting a lot on the site of my internet family, whispergirl.net and you are also welcome.We talk a lot about music,but no politics an TU as we like to call him has been his usual witty self and become part of our family and is now participating in our weekly NFL picks.Very fun site!How are things with you?

    • http://www.markamerica.com/ Mark America

      CC, Glad to see you and your adopted uncle. My wife is doing better, although there’s been significant load-shifting around here. I’m still going to be hit or miss, but you should expect to see me a bit more often. Problem is that work plus chores is growing almost oppressive in burden. I’m not exactly a spring chicken anymore, either.

  • the unit

    Notice Camaro Cowboy is tuned in too. We’ll be social media for sure. Not embracing the suck, of course.

  • JohnInFlorida

    Mark, I had finally decided that you had fallen off the edge of the earth. I took a peek today and I’m glad to discover I was wrong.
    It’s disconcerting that your 2 most recent articles confirm how obscenely deep the financial holes have already become and still the Administration (with huge assists from the Legislative and Judiciary) keeps digging. I keep searching for something, anything, that can put a positive spin on what’s happening but to no avail.
    Convention of States Project remains a wonderful concept given us by the Framers … and it’s slowly moving forward … it’s just too damn bad that our beginning to implement it comes a decade or more too late to avert the crash. That’s no surprise as not enough people were ready to listen until it became too late to matter.
    Sorry to be “Donald Downer” but as the plaque over my desk says … “It is what it is!”

    • http://www.markamerica.com/ Mark America

      John,

      It’s never too late, but there’s no sense pretending that where we’re at isn’t a really dark place. I don’t know how we recover, because as Williams points out, though there are immediate and drastic measures that could be taken to avert all of this, the simple political reality is that none of them are going to do a thing, and not enough of us are raising sufficient Hell to make it an issue.