Archive for the ‘Polling Data’ Category

Debunking Stupid Ideas in Mainstream Media

Tuesday, December 10th, 2013

Bloviating Zone

Seldom is there a shortage of stupid, insipid, vapid ideas in the mainstream media, but lately, it’s coming from every direction.  I was watching the idiot at 8pm(Eastern) on the diminishing network that is Fox News, when he promoted an upcoming segment featuring Michele Bachmann(R-MN.)  The segment has not yet played, and I’m not really interested in anything this perpetual TV dipstick has to say, so I was not surprised at the vacuous formulation of his segment, based on a recent McClatchy-Marist poll: “Why are the American people still more dis-satisfied with Republicans than Democrats?”  Let me suggest an answer that refuses to evade the obvious, irrespective of what Bachmann may or may not say in response, and howsoever the bloviating 8pm-er may otherwise characterize it.  It’s really a simple math problem, and it’s time we ask goof-balls like O’Reilly to understand mathematics. There is one reason Republicans are doing more poorly in Congressional approval polls, and it is not because they’re not moderate enough.  In fact, it’s just the opposite.

Various surveys tell us that roughly 20-25 percent of the populace considers itself liberal.  As much as 42 percent consider themselves conservative.  The rest  consider themselves mushy moderates and independents.  Let me suggest that we break this up into a simpler math question: If 33 percent of respondents approve of Democrats in Congress, that is roughly equivalent to the number of avowed liberals and a portion of the “moderates” who are simply embarrassed liberals hoping to maintain some semblance of non-partisan cover.  The rest of the country hates the Democrats, including some actual moderates.  Meanwhile, the same 33 percent can be counted on to hate the Republicans. One might then think that since 40-45 percent of the populace considers themselves conservative, Republicans would gain the benefit.  Actually, it’s not like this at all.  You see, since Republicans register around 25 percent approval, let us then admit that the group most likely to be adding to disapproval of Republicans isn’t the moderates, but instead, the conservatives.  42 percent plus 33 percent equals 75 percent.  While I am confident there will be some instances in which this isn’t precisely true, the obvious answer is that the Democrats are disapproved less because their own core constituents support them relentlessly.  In contrast, conservatives who constitute the core of the Republican constituency are as unhappy with Republicans as liberals are. Only squishy moderates like O’Reilly support Republicans.

This is not difficult math, so simple in fact, that even a mindless dolt like O’Reilly should be able to figure it out. The problem is, however, that it’s only easy to see if one is willing to see it.  O’Reilly isn’t willing to see anything that contradicts the DC orthodoxy. When O’Reilly implies that it’s all because Republicans are too immoderate, he’s evading the truth, because it’s not a truth he wants to purvey.  If the Republicans in Congress were interested in getting a better approval rating, they wouldn’t push ridiculous “bi-partisan” budget deals like the one now being offered by Paul Ryan(R-WI) and his Senate counterpart, the estimable Patty Murray(D-WA.) Conservatives are rightly disgusted with this and other deals, and the explicit unwillingness of Congressional Republicans to fight. 42 percent plus 33 percent equals 75 percent. Mathematical wizardry is not required.  All one needs is a commitment to the simple truth, and that’s something Bill O’Reilly plainly lacks.

(Editor’s Note: Apparently, the math escaped Bachmann too, because her explanation turned out to be that the media is against Republicans, which while true, doesn’t answer the heart of the question.)

Closing Oceans, Furloughing the Almighty – How to Beat the Bully

Saturday, October 5th, 2013

He’s Winning?

One of the lessons most of us managed to learn in confronting bullies early in life is that few things can overcome the power of mockery and ridicule.  The biggest, baddest schoolyard bullies are often overwhelmed when their victims band together and belittle them.  The same rule holds true in politics, and indeed, it’s a standard political approach. Catching politicians eating corn-dogs, or making a mockery of their off-the-cuff comments has been the stuff of political mockery for centuries.  It’s effective because most people like to laugh, particularly at the expense of the high and mighty.  Who on Earth is higher and mightier than a US president?  Who is more open to ridicule than the man who occupies the Oval office?  We conservatives often worry that we’re not “winning” the public opinion because we’re painted as dour or heartless or humorless.  Laugh a little.  This President is affording us every opportunity to prevail as he undertakes every extreme action to enhance the pain of the shutdown for Americans.  Yes, some of it is enraging, but it also speaks to the self-aggrandized view this man holds of himself.  If you want to defeat a despot, mock him.  Ridicule him.  Make him the joke around town.  None are more eligible for this treatment than Barack Hussein Obama.

It’s not as though we don’t have the evidence.  After five days of the government shutdown, during which conservatives have taken to the airwaves to mock and ridicule this preposterous man, questioning his every action in light of his constitutional limits, his daily tracking-poll numbers are falling like a stone.  Conventional wisdom had held that he could not be beaten, and that Republicans would take all the blame, but that hasn’t been demonstrated by the tracking polls.  With every day this goes on, and with every joke that is told, Obama is seeing his approval numbers dip to all-time lows.  If you want to know how to make a lame-duck of this President, it really comes down to credibility.  After Putin humiliated him, and after a month of haughty lectures and accusations leveled at Republicans, he’s beginning to sound like an excuse factory.  Whatever else may be true, the American people are catching on to this.  It’s having an effect on his ability to carry out his threats.  Think of the imagery of 90-year-old veterans at the WWII memorial being greeted with “Barrycades” erected by order of a president that desperate to make his political points.  It’s an open invitation to ridicule.

On Saturday comes the news that Obama has “shut down the oceans,” and people are laughing about it.  On Friday, it was made public that he’s ordered the Pentagon to shut down religious services in military chapels, and Americans emboldened by the zeitgeist begin to proclaim: “Obama is Furloughing G-d.” Now they mock his closure of Mt. Rushmore, asking if he will throw a curtain over it.  Jay Leno asked his audience if they were more scared of the shutdown, or more afraid of it opening back up to uproarious laughter.  The Obama-Reid shutdown is having precisely the opposite effect of what had been intended, and the more ludicrous the President’s actions, the more his approval drops.  He tries to inflict more pain, and Americans are disgusted by it but then go on to laugh in the face of it all.  At every turn, Americans are looking for new and more humorous ways to dismiss this president as the bullying lout he has become.

In social media, particularly on Twitter, the mockery goes on continuously.  It’s having an effect, as each time some shrill leftist makes some idiotic claim on behalf of the administration, they are met with derision and mockery.  The more this happens, the more it becomes difficult for Obama to have the impact he had hoped this shutdown opportunity would present.  Early in the shutdown, the White House insiders whispered that they thought they were winning, and now, even that comment is mocked.  Most of the Republicans in Washington don’t know how to handle this. Their heads are stuck in DC media coverage, and they don’t understand the mixed signals.  From their districts, and in social media, support when they stand firm, while the establishment press insists that they are losing.

Naturally, a few of the smarter ones have instigated or joined in the mockery.  Senator Ted Cruz has tweeted his share of appraisals of the Obama-care roll-out and the Obama-Reid shutdown, and it’s beginning to take a toll.  Republicans questioned Cruz over his strategy during a caucus lunch this week, and the weak-kneed Republicans were bothered and accusatory, suggesting Cruz had “led them into a cul-de-sac” to borrow the phrase.  What their shortsightedness reveals is how out-of-touch they are with the American people.  If they understood the dynamics of our modern culture, they would recognize as has Senator Cruz that the American people are just beginning to engage fully and that they will demand that DC listen to their complaints.  The tide has turned and the momentum is now gathering against the President, and if the surrender-set on Capitol hill would merely join the “Cruzade,” not even the establishment media would be able to rescue the Obama presidency from lame-duck status.

Given what we know about Obama’s designs and intentions, this may be the best way in which to stop him in his tracks. It may be the only way in which Obama-care is finally ejected into the ditch.  What we conservatives can do is to join in the mockery and the ridicule of the bully.  Obama wants to push old men around at the WWII memorial, and at Normandy, and anywhere else he can inflict pain.  He wants to shut down religious services on military bases, and he wants to make the shutdown as painful as possible.  We’re Americans, and we have always known throughout our history how to deal with pain.  We laugh at it when we can muster the humor.  Let us laugh in the face of this dictator-in-waiting, and show him we still know how to overcome bullies.  This man won’t build a wall on our Southern border to keep out illegals, but he’ll throw up “Barrycades” around our treasured memorials?  Such a man deserves all the contempt and ridicule we can muster.

Eyebrow-Raising Poll: ABCNews/Wa-Po – Romney Unfavorability Rises

Wednesday, March 28th, 2012

No Sale?

In the latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Mitt Romney has continued his slide so that fully 50% of Americans now view the former Massachusetts governor unfavorably.  He’s dropped to 61% approval among Republicans, while the President remains at 91% among Democrats.  This continuing weakness among Republicans(never mind the general populace) continues to suggest that he’s on the fast-track to a loss in November.  There’s a growing push among conservatives to force a brokered convention, and that may be the only hope the Republican party has to stave off electoral disaster, but more importantly the wrecking of our nation.

While I don’t always place a good deal of credence in polls, what I do tend to take from a group of polls from various sources is a sort of trend, and I think this one is dangerous.  We have an “inevitable nominee” who can’t consolidate support among conservatives, and who will only manage to crawl under the wire if he manages to gain the 1144 delegates required to secure the nomination ahead of the convention.  My thinking is that conservatives should stop this madness by forcing a brokered convention in order that we might have other options.

 

 

PPP Poll: Sarah Palin Could Unite GOP

Wednesday, March 21st, 2012

The GOP's Real Uniter

An interesting bit of data is buried in a PPP Poll released today, showing that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is more popular among conservatives than any of the actual candidates in the race.  Nobody should be surprised, but after Governor Palin bowed out of the nomination race in October, there has been a continuing undercurrent of support for some method by which to bring her into the race after all.  Many focused on a draft movement, while others have been talking about a possible brokered convention.  All of this is a continuing demonstration of the power of Sarah Palin’s appeal with the conservative base of the party, but also with the more moderate and independent-minded wing of the party.  That’s noted in this article as well, and it’s interesting to see how Gov. Palin compares:

“The talk of a brokered convention never seems to die down and one interesting finding on this poll was that Sarah Palin is far more popular than any of the actual Republican candidates in the race. Her net favorability is +48, with 68% of voters rating her favorably to only 20% with a negative opinion. That compares favorably to +29 for Santorum, +19 for Romney, and -26 for Paul.”

“Palin is someone GOP delegates might be able to unify around in the case of a hopelessly deadlocked convention. She is seen positively by Gingrich voters (85/7), Santorum supporters (80/10), and Romney ones (57/27) alike. That’s a contrast to Romney who is disliked by both Santorum (38/48) and Gingrich (32/54) voters and Santorum who is disliked by Romney (38/48) voters and only seen narrowly favorably by Gingrich (46/42) backers.”

So you want to know who can unite the Republican party?  It isn’t Mitt Romney.  Once again, this reveals what many ‘Palinistas’ have known for some time: Governor Palin’s appeal is more broad-based than anybody else one can name in the GOP.  This poll merely confirms that view, and it’s part of the reason so many were shocked when she announced she would not seek the GOP nomination back in October.

I believe this is the reason the war on Governor Palin has recommenced lately, because I think both Romney and Obama see her as the biggest threat.  Romney fears a brokered convention, because it could lead to that kind of outcome, and Obama fears her impact with voters.  It’s all about a preemptive strike against the one person the GOP establishment and the left sees as the biggest threat to their joint power-sharing hegemony in American politics.

 

 

Gingrich May Be Staging a Comeback

Thursday, March 1st, 2012

Up in the Polls

Wednesday evening, Hot-Air reported the results of a poll that seemed to suggest that while he has a long way to go, Newt Gingrich may be seeing something of a resurgence in support.  It’s minor, but he jumped two points in his Gallup Support Rating.  Part of this may be due to Rick Santorum’s failure to best Romney in Michigan.  Some of his comments during the Michigan campaign swing may have hurt him, and this may cause him some serious problems. If he can’t grab Ohio next Tuesday, it may well spell the decline of Santorum’s hopes.  Gingrich is predictably strong in Georgia, but the interesting fact of Super Tuesday may be that we could have three different winners among the ten states.

Santorum is leading in Ohio at the moment, with Romney behind by eight points in second.  Gingrich is back in third, but well ahead of Ron Paul. In Georgia, it’s the reverse order, except for Paul, who is still fourth.  In other states, it’s a mixed bag, with Gingrich doing well in Tennessee, and Romney is doing well in Idaho.  What all of this suggests is that the race isn’t over, and until the non-Romneys reduce by one, he may go on to win.  Neither Santorum nor Gingrich are likely to quit, but much of that will hinge on Super Tuesday’s outcome.  If something incredible happens, and Gingrich loses his home state, as he himself mentioned, there’s probably not a way forward for somebody who cannot secure his home state.  That would be a blow to Gingrich, but for the moment, he looks strong in Georgia.

I wouldn’t mind seeing Super Tuesday being split up three ways, because that would certainly keep this thing alive. Among these three, I still prefer Gingrich, but I’d vote for my dog before I’ll vote for Romney in the Texas primary.  Speaking of Texas, our primary was supposed to be on Super Tuesday, but it’s been bumped back due to a redistricting court case.  Now, Texas is tentatively scheduled to hold its primary on May 29th, making it not quite irrelevant, but surely reducing its importance.  I don’t think this has been accidental either, as Texas probably wouldn’t support Romney unless he is the only one left standing, and by the end of May, he may well be.

Drudge Thought He Took Care of Newt

Whether Newt Gingrich can actually launch another comeback off of Santorum’s relatively poor performance in Arizona and Michigan is another question, but Gingrich has exhibited resilience throughout this campaign.  It’s also true to say that he’s probably the best-suited to contend with Barack Obama in a debate, but he’s also the only one among these candidates who stands a chance of reforming Washington DC, excepting Ron Paul, but he’s got a different agenda, and I don’t believe he’s all that serious about winning.  The funniest part of this story is seeing that Drudge has run with the same Hot Air story as his headline.  If Newt does rise again, I wonder what Drudge will do to him next.

I hope we get to find out.

 

Donald Trump’s Endorsement: Does It Matter To You? Poll

Thursday, February 2nd, 2012

Does He Matter?

There has been a lot of discussion in the last day over Donald Trump’s endorsement, and who might get it, if he gives one at all. All that is know is that “The Donald” has decided to make some sort of announcement from Las Vegas, Nevada this evening.  Rather than play the speculation game going gang-busters in the media, I have an important question for readers, and it’s a relatively simple one:

Florida Poll – Election Eve

Monday, January 30th, 2012

I have two questions for you in this evening’s poll.

Please answer them both.

No double voting!

I will be comparing this data with South Carolina data, and I will report to you any shifts in the support of the candidates.

Thank you for participating!

A Note on Bogus Polling

Sunday, January 29th, 2012

Which Polls To Trust?

I’ve heard from a few people really concerned about the polling in Florida, showing Gingrich down, and Romney up, which seems at least in part to be contradicted by the sense of things on the ground. I am going to show you how a poll can be twisted, and how you can’t trust them, and if you allow them to form your opinion, you can actually be manipulated.  Let’s start with a very popular poll, the PPP(Public Policy Polling) outfit that currenty shows Romney leading 40% to 32%.  

In this poll, when you read to the bottom of the page and examine the data, you discover the following:

“The PPP poll surveyed 387 likely Florida Republican primary voters on January 28th with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.”(emphasis mine)

Ladies and gentlemen, when you see ANY poll with such a small sample size, it’s GARBAGE.  When you see any poll with a margin of error of more than 3%, it’s likely garbage, particularly if it has a small sample size.  For a state as large and diverse as Florida, any poll that doesn’t survey at least 1500 people, with a margin of error well below 4% is a poll intended to generate a headline and drive you.

Now, here’s their insurance: With a margin of error of 5%, if you add that to Gingrich, and subtract it from Romney, this poll may actually tell you nothing, because Gingrich could in fact be leading.  This kind of poll is GARBAGE as any serious analyst will tell you, and worse, when you see so-called analysts on television referencing such polls, you know they are LYING to you because as trained professionals, THEY ABSOLUTELY KNOW BETTER.

Sorry, I didn’t mean to “shout” at you, but I am disgusted with the media manipulation, as they try to create some false momentum in Romney’s direction. You should let others know this too.  387 people? Really? A margin of error of 5%??? That’s a potential 10-point swing in either direction, which gives them cover if their pushing doesn’t work out, but also helps them create a theme.

Don’t believe such polls. They are intended to mislead you. I have rejected four such polls from publication on this site in the last month because they were this egregious.

Gallup: Gingrich Leading Nationally

Saturday, January 28th, 2012

New Poll: Gingrich Leading Nationally

Despite millions and millions spent on attack ads against him in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and now Florida, Gingrich is holding onto a lead in national polling. Of course, the problem at present is in Florida, where millions of dollars in negative ads are hammering him relentlessly with many out-of-context quotes, and again seeking to attack him personally.  I realize the advertising game goes both ways to some extent, but let’s be honest enough with ourselves to admit that when you look at the amount of cash being heaped into media buys in this race, only one candidate has the sort of resources necessary to flood the airwaves. Gingrich leads 32%-24% over Romney.

Of course, at present, no place polled is quite as important as Florida, with the impending primary about to kick off in that state, but the truth is that due to early voting, it’s been underway right along. If conservatives in that state don’t band together to defeat Romney, the media will paint this as more momentum for Mitt, and the talk of “inevitable” will begin anew.  I don’t think that should happen, but will happen may be another matter. One thing this poll point out is that Gingrich may be doing well nationally, but the influence of such overwhelming establishment manipulations as have been ongoing in Florida may make it insurmountable.

New Poll: Gingrich Leads in Florida

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

In a confirmation of the South Carolina results, at least for the moment, Gingrich is leading in Florida.  It remains to be seen if this will hold through the Florida primary next week, but at present, it seems Newt Gingrich is leading, and the Rasmussen Poll released this morning points to a surge on Newt’s behalf.

From the Rasmussen poll results:

“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.”

This is good news for Gingrich, because it suggests that if he can maintain this lead, and capture even a portion of the undecideds, he can defeat Romney irrespective of any edge Romney may find among undecideds.  Of course, there are two debates between now and the primary, the first Monday night, but if Gingrich can pull off a win in either, he will tend to confirm what voters think.  Expectations are part of the debate game, however, and Gingrich’s excellent performances last week have set what may be an unreasonably high bar.  Nobody can be on the top of their game every time out.

The Myth of Gingrich “Unfavorability” Exposed

Sunday, January 22nd, 2012

Not Electable?

In a story certain to raise a few eyebrows, and sure to anger the GOP establishment, CNSNews is reporting on the results of a poll that show Gingrich defeated the media by a margin of 54% to 14% in what must be considered a refutation of the latest media theme on Gingrich’s “questionable electability.” The PPP poll reflects what most of us have suspected all along:  A reasonably conservative candidate who will stand up and take on the media will gain the overwhelming support of conservatives in particular, but will also tend to gain support from independents and moderates who share the general skepticism about the media’s agenda in every political event or issue.

This is indicative of the problem for Mitt Romney, because while he tries very hard to avoid offending the media, what he’s really doing is annoying those voters who believe the media is out of touch, or even “in the tank” for Romney.  Romney continues to get somewhat more favorable treatment from the media. This too-cozy relationship is something Romney ought to sever, because it’s actually hurting him more than it will ever help him, particularly among conservatives who already worry that Romney is simply too liberal, a characterization they attach also to the media.

South Carolina Poll Results: And the Winner Is…

Saturday, January 21st, 2012

Palmetto State Poll

As the polls close in South Carolina, and we wait to find out about the returns, we have a clear winner in our own poll.  This suggests good things for Newt Gingrich tonight, but because this poll is a small, unscientific sample, it may not be representative of anything beyond the readership of this site, and I do note there seems to be a definite bias there, based on comments.  I also learned a lesson: I should have kept the poll a sticky post to keep it at the top, because the number of respondents diminished rapidly once it went further down, and then off the front page.  My apologies for that.

Here are the results(of all of them, I find the last question’s result the most interesting:)

Romney’s Lead Collapsing Nationwide

Friday, January 20th, 2012

Slipping?

NewsMax is reporting the results of a Gallup poll that shows Mitt Romney’s lead nationally is collapsing.  It’s clear that Romney’s last two debate performances have hurt him, and Thursday night’s answer about whether he would follow his father’s example on the release of his tax returns is seen as a large part of his troubles.  He answered “maybe,” and this made him look as though he was hiding something.

Watch the video here:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=totRt7wks5I]

This couldn’t help Romney, who has been having difficulties gaining traction in South Carolina despite millions of dollars in media time purchased directly by his campaign, or by so-called SuperPACs acting on his behalf.  Romney may recover, but the problem is that he’s going to take positive steps to do so, and thus far, he’s maintained his lead by default.  Now that the race is tightening, that strategy may no longer work, and if the electorate senses he’s being evasive, it could cause him significant damage in excess of any his own negative campaign against Gingrich is now having.

Gingrich Up By 6 in South Carolina

Friday, January 20th, 2012

Surging in S. Carolina

Clemson University is reporting the results of a poll that shows Gingrich up by six points over Romney in South Carolina.  This tends to confirm suspicions that Gingrich may have stabilized despite attacks with a solidifying lead because Romney admitted earlier on Friday that Gingrich would win some primaries.  Clemson’s Palmetto Poll evaluated the impact the revelations about Gingrich might have on the election outcome, but they still draw the same conclusions as in December, although it has closed:

“We expect a reaction by the electorate to the personal revelations about Gingrich to be registered on Saturday, however, we do not think it will be substantial enough to erase the lead Gingrich has over Romney,” said Clemson University political scientist Dave Woodard.

“Our head-to-head matchup of the candidates has consistently shown Mitt Romney competitive. The margin for Romney has evaporated this week, and we believe that Gingrich — who led our December poll with 38 percent to Romney’s 21 percent — will win the South Carolina primary,” he said.

In the newest poll, Gingrich had slipped to 32%, and Romney had climbed to 26%, meaning the race is tighter than a month ago, but considering the full-court press of negative advertising Romney had done throughout December, and has continued in New Hampshire and South Carolina, it’s not really surprising that this race has tightened, but the effect of the re-aired story of Gingrich’s second wife’s allegations surely had some effect.  The Clemson poll showed respondents to this poll had the following priorities in choosing their candidates.

“After choosing a candidate, respondents gave a wide variety of answers as to what they liked most about the person they selected, but the two most popular appeared to be: “he has honesty and integrity” and “his overall political ideology” — meaning conservative principles.

“Much has been made of the ‘electability’ issue of the candidates, but in our poll the response: ‘He has the best chance of beating President Barack Obama,’” was the fourth choice of voters, after “‘He has better ideas for strengthening the economy,’” said Clemson political scientist Bruce Ransom.”

Saturday should be an interesting match-up, and Gingrich’s performance in Thursday night’s debate almost certainly helped him, while Romney’s performance was rather flat, and his meandering explanation of why he hasn’t released his tax returns is sure to take a toll on his support in the Palmetto state.

New Poll: Gingrich Now Leading in South Carolina

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

 

A Little Lead

According to NewsMax, Gingrich has pulled ahead in South Carolina, and now we know precisely why the desperate media shills for…somebody else…ran with the phony Gingrich non-story story earlier this evening.  It remains to be seen how much damage that story will have done to Gingrich, but hopefully with a couple days for the responses to follow through behind the initial hit-piece published on the most-viewed link- aggregater on the Internet, maybe he will maintain his advantage.  Better yet, maybe there will be a backlash against the media and the guy who would have been the beneficiary of a smear story.  From the Newsmax article:

An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Wednesday night has former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now leading the Republican primary race in South Carolina.

The poll of likely Republican primary voters has Gingrich with 32 percent, ahead of Mitt Romney who trailed close behind at 29 percent.

The results are a significant reversal for Romney, who had led polls before Tuesday’s Fox News debate. A poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage last Sunday showed Romney with a double-digit lead over Gingrich.

Yes, this is the reason for Wednesday evening’s media hit-job. Let there be no doubt that the media sees its role as pushing you like cattle.  Maybe it’s time to stampede them instead?

 

Rasmussen: Gingrich Closing On Romney (Updated)

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

Newt Gaining Ground

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Newt Gingrich suddenly closing on Mitt Romney, within real striking distance now, as Gingrich is now at 27%, to Romney’s 30%.  That’s substantial closure, and if this translates into movement in South Carolina over the next few days, Romney will be in trouble.  Of course, as I reported earlier today, Romney has a remedy, and his campaign is already cranking up the “Newt is unreliable and zany” meme.  It’s another reason people should be wary of what’s coming out of the Romney campaign in the run-up to the South Carolina primary, and it’s now intensifying.

According to the Rasmussen poll:

“The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide shows Romney with 30% support and Gingrich with 27% of the vote. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, who was running second two weeks ago, has now dropped to 15%.”

That’s a good deal of movement, and they stress this point as follows:

“But the story in the new numbers, taken Tuesday night, is Gingrich’s jump 11 points from 16% two weeks ago. Romney’s support is essentially unchanged from 29% at that time, while Santorum is down six points from 21%. Paul’s and Perry’s support is also unchanged. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman earned four percent (4%) of the vote at the start of the month but dropped out of the race this week. This suggests that many voters are still looking for an alternative to Romney and currently see Gingrich as that candidate.”

This has always been the case:  Conservatives are looking for a non-Romney candidate, and Romney’s strategy has been to attack whomever the leading non-Romney may be at the moment.  We’ve watched the progression over the last year, and it’s predictable.  Much of the gains by Gingrich is suspected to be related to his tremendous performance in Monday’s debate.

I’m of a mind to agree with former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who wants to see this nomination battle play out over a longer period so we can more fully examine the records of the candidates.  I think that Romney is only now really beginning to be looked at by the media, and he certainly seems to have more warts than once believed.  If we’re going to defeat Obama in 2012, we’ll need a candidate who can withstand the onslaught we all know will be forthcoming as Obama seeks to retain power so as to continue his “fundamental transformation.”  It’s my own belief that Romney can’t beat Obama under current circumstances, bad as we may perceive it to be, and putting up a weak candidate will not help our cause.

Update: Romney already going after Gingrich