Posts Tagged ‘Polling Data’

Eyebrow-Raising Poll: ABCNews/Wa-Po – Romney Unfavorability Rises

Wednesday, March 28th, 2012

No Sale?

In the latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Mitt Romney has continued his slide so that fully 50% of Americans now view the former Massachusetts governor unfavorably.  He’s dropped to 61% approval among Republicans, while the President remains at 91% among Democrats.  This continuing weakness among Republicans(never mind the general populace) continues to suggest that he’s on the fast-track to a loss in November.  There’s a growing push among conservatives to force a brokered convention, and that may be the only hope the Republican party has to stave off electoral disaster, but more importantly the wrecking of our nation.

While I don’t always place a good deal of credence in polls, what I do tend to take from a group of polls from various sources is a sort of trend, and I think this one is dangerous.  We have an “inevitable nominee” who can’t consolidate support among conservatives, and who will only manage to crawl under the wire if he manages to gain the 1144 delegates required to secure the nomination ahead of the convention.  My thinking is that conservatives should stop this madness by forcing a brokered convention in order that we might have other options.

 

 

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PPP Poll: Sarah Palin Could Unite GOP

Wednesday, March 21st, 2012

The GOP's Real Uniter

An interesting bit of data is buried in a PPP Poll released today, showing that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is more popular among conservatives than any of the actual candidates in the race.  Nobody should be surprised, but after Governor Palin bowed out of the nomination race in October, there has been a continuing undercurrent of support for some method by which to bring her into the race after all.  Many focused on a draft movement, while others have been talking about a possible brokered convention.  All of this is a continuing demonstration of the power of Sarah Palin’s appeal with the conservative base of the party, but also with the more moderate and independent-minded wing of the party.  That’s noted in this article as well, and it’s interesting to see how Gov. Palin compares:

“The talk of a brokered convention never seems to die down and one interesting finding on this poll was that Sarah Palin is far more popular than any of the actual Republican candidates in the race. Her net favorability is +48, with 68% of voters rating her favorably to only 20% with a negative opinion. That compares favorably to +29 for Santorum, +19 for Romney, and -26 for Paul.”

“Palin is someone GOP delegates might be able to unify around in the case of a hopelessly deadlocked convention. She is seen positively by Gingrich voters (85/7), Santorum supporters (80/10), and Romney ones (57/27) alike. That’s a contrast to Romney who is disliked by both Santorum (38/48) and Gingrich (32/54) voters and Santorum who is disliked by Romney (38/48) voters and only seen narrowly favorably by Gingrich (46/42) backers.”

So you want to know who can unite the Republican party?  It isn’t Mitt Romney.  Once again, this reveals what many ‘Palinistas’ have known for some time: Governor Palin’s appeal is more broad-based than anybody else one can name in the GOP.  This poll merely confirms that view, and it’s part of the reason so many were shocked when she announced she would not seek the GOP nomination back in October.

I believe this is the reason the war on Governor Palin has recommenced lately, because I think both Romney and Obama see her as the biggest threat.  Romney fears a brokered convention, because it could lead to that kind of outcome, and Obama fears her impact with voters.  It’s all about a preemptive strike against the one person the GOP establishment and the left sees as the biggest threat to their joint power-sharing hegemony in American politics.

 

 

Gingrich May Be Staging a Comeback

Thursday, March 1st, 2012

Up in the Polls

Wednesday evening, Hot-Air reported the results of a poll that seemed to suggest that while he has a long way to go, Newt Gingrich may be seeing something of a resurgence in support.  It’s minor, but he jumped two points in his Gallup Support Rating.  Part of this may be due to Rick Santorum’s failure to best Romney in Michigan.  Some of his comments during the Michigan campaign swing may have hurt him, and this may cause him some serious problems. If he can’t grab Ohio next Tuesday, it may well spell the decline of Santorum’s hopes.  Gingrich is predictably strong in Georgia, but the interesting fact of Super Tuesday may be that we could have three different winners among the ten states.

Santorum is leading in Ohio at the moment, with Romney behind by eight points in second.  Gingrich is back in third, but well ahead of Ron Paul. In Georgia, it’s the reverse order, except for Paul, who is still fourth.  In other states, it’s a mixed bag, with Gingrich doing well in Tennessee, and Romney is doing well in Idaho.  What all of this suggests is that the race isn’t over, and until the non-Romneys reduce by one, he may go on to win.  Neither Santorum nor Gingrich are likely to quit, but much of that will hinge on Super Tuesday’s outcome.  If something incredible happens, and Gingrich loses his home state, as he himself mentioned, there’s probably not a way forward for somebody who cannot secure his home state.  That would be a blow to Gingrich, but for the moment, he looks strong in Georgia.

I wouldn’t mind seeing Super Tuesday being split up three ways, because that would certainly keep this thing alive. Among these three, I still prefer Gingrich, but I’d vote for my dog before I’ll vote for Romney in the Texas primary.  Speaking of Texas, our primary was supposed to be on Super Tuesday, but it’s been bumped back due to a redistricting court case.  Now, Texas is tentatively scheduled to hold its primary on May 29th, making it not quite irrelevant, but surely reducing its importance.  I don’t think this has been accidental either, as Texas probably wouldn’t support Romney unless he is the only one left standing, and by the end of May, he may well be.

Drudge Thought He Took Care of Newt

Whether Newt Gingrich can actually launch another comeback off of Santorum’s relatively poor performance in Arizona and Michigan is another question, but Gingrich has exhibited resilience throughout this campaign.  It’s also true to say that he’s probably the best-suited to contend with Barack Obama in a debate, but he’s also the only one among these candidates who stands a chance of reforming Washington DC, excepting Ron Paul, but he’s got a different agenda, and I don’t believe he’s all that serious about winning.  The funniest part of this story is seeing that Drudge has run with the same Hot Air story as his headline.  If Newt does rise again, I wonder what Drudge will do to him next.

I hope we get to find out.

 

A Note on Bogus Polling

Sunday, January 29th, 2012

Which Polls To Trust?

I’ve heard from a few people really concerned about the polling in Florida, showing Gingrich down, and Romney up, which seems at least in part to be contradicted by the sense of things on the ground. I am going to show you how a poll can be twisted, and how you can’t trust them, and if you allow them to form your opinion, you can actually be manipulated.  Let’s start with a very popular poll, the PPP(Public Policy Polling) outfit that currenty shows Romney leading 40% to 32%.  

In this poll, when you read to the bottom of the page and examine the data, you discover the following:

“The PPP poll surveyed 387 likely Florida Republican primary voters on January 28th with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.”(emphasis mine)

Ladies and gentlemen, when you see ANY poll with such a small sample size, it’s GARBAGE.  When you see any poll with a margin of error of more than 3%, it’s likely garbage, particularly if it has a small sample size.  For a state as large and diverse as Florida, any poll that doesn’t survey at least 1500 people, with a margin of error well below 4% is a poll intended to generate a headline and drive you.

Now, here’s their insurance: With a margin of error of 5%, if you add that to Gingrich, and subtract it from Romney, this poll may actually tell you nothing, because Gingrich could in fact be leading.  This kind of poll is GARBAGE as any serious analyst will tell you, and worse, when you see so-called analysts on television referencing such polls, you know they are LYING to you because as trained professionals, THEY ABSOLUTELY KNOW BETTER.

Sorry, I didn’t mean to “shout” at you, but I am disgusted with the media manipulation, as they try to create some false momentum in Romney’s direction. You should let others know this too.  387 people? Really? A margin of error of 5%??? That’s a potential 10-point swing in either direction, which gives them cover if their pushing doesn’t work out, but also helps them create a theme.

Don’t believe such polls. They are intended to mislead you. I have rejected four such polls from publication on this site in the last month because they were this egregious.

New Poll: Gingrich Leads in Florida

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

In a confirmation of the South Carolina results, at least for the moment, Gingrich is leading in Florida.  It remains to be seen if this will hold through the Florida primary next week, but at present, it seems Newt Gingrich is leading, and the Rasmussen Poll released this morning points to a surge on Newt’s behalf.

From the Rasmussen poll results:

“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.”

This is good news for Gingrich, because it suggests that if he can maintain this lead, and capture even a portion of the undecideds, he can defeat Romney irrespective of any edge Romney may find among undecideds.  Of course, there are two debates between now and the primary, the first Monday night, but if Gingrich can pull off a win in either, he will tend to confirm what voters think.  Expectations are part of the debate game, however, and Gingrich’s excellent performances last week have set what may be an unreasonably high bar.  Nobody can be on the top of their game every time out.

The Myth of Gingrich “Unfavorability” Exposed

Sunday, January 22nd, 2012

Not Electable?

In a story certain to raise a few eyebrows, and sure to anger the GOP establishment, CNSNews is reporting on the results of a poll that show Gingrich defeated the media by a margin of 54% to 14% in what must be considered a refutation of the latest media theme on Gingrich’s “questionable electability.” The PPP poll reflects what most of us have suspected all along:  A reasonably conservative candidate who will stand up and take on the media will gain the overwhelming support of conservatives in particular, but will also tend to gain support from independents and moderates who share the general skepticism about the media’s agenda in every political event or issue.

This is indicative of the problem for Mitt Romney, because while he tries very hard to avoid offending the media, what he’s really doing is annoying those voters who believe the media is out of touch, or even “in the tank” for Romney.  Romney continues to get somewhat more favorable treatment from the media. This too-cozy relationship is something Romney ought to sever, because it’s actually hurting him more than it will ever help him, particularly among conservatives who already worry that Romney is simply too liberal, a characterization they attach also to the media.

Rasmussen: Gingrich Closing On Romney (Updated)

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

Newt Gaining Ground

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Newt Gingrich suddenly closing on Mitt Romney, within real striking distance now, as Gingrich is now at 27%, to Romney’s 30%.  That’s substantial closure, and if this translates into movement in South Carolina over the next few days, Romney will be in trouble.  Of course, as I reported earlier today, Romney has a remedy, and his campaign is already cranking up the “Newt is unreliable and zany” meme.  It’s another reason people should be wary of what’s coming out of the Romney campaign in the run-up to the South Carolina primary, and it’s now intensifying.

According to the Rasmussen poll:

“The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide shows Romney with 30% support and Gingrich with 27% of the vote. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, who was running second two weeks ago, has now dropped to 15%.”

That’s a good deal of movement, and they stress this point as follows:

“But the story in the new numbers, taken Tuesday night, is Gingrich’s jump 11 points from 16% two weeks ago. Romney’s support is essentially unchanged from 29% at that time, while Santorum is down six points from 21%. Paul’s and Perry’s support is also unchanged. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman earned four percent (4%) of the vote at the start of the month but dropped out of the race this week. This suggests that many voters are still looking for an alternative to Romney and currently see Gingrich as that candidate.”

This has always been the case:  Conservatives are looking for a non-Romney candidate, and Romney’s strategy has been to attack whomever the leading non-Romney may be at the moment.  We’ve watched the progression over the last year, and it’s predictable.  Much of the gains by Gingrich is suspected to be related to his tremendous performance in Monday’s debate.

I’m of a mind to agree with former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, who wants to see this nomination battle play out over a longer period so we can more fully examine the records of the candidates.  I think that Romney is only now really beginning to be looked at by the media, and he certainly seems to have more warts than once believed.  If we’re going to defeat Obama in 2012, we’ll need a candidate who can withstand the onslaught we all know will be forthcoming as Obama seeks to retain power so as to continue his “fundamental transformation.”  It’s my own belief that Romney can’t beat Obama under current circumstances, bad as we may perceive it to be, and putting up a weak candidate will not help our cause.

Update: Romney already going after Gingrich