Posts Tagged ‘PPP’

A Note on Bogus Polling

Sunday, January 29th, 2012

Which Polls To Trust?

I’ve heard from a few people really concerned about the polling in Florida, showing Gingrich down, and Romney up, which seems at least in part to be contradicted by the sense of things on the ground. I am going to show you how a poll can be twisted, and how you can’t trust them, and if you allow them to form your opinion, you can actually be manipulated.  Let’s start with a very popular poll, the PPP(Public Policy Polling) outfit that currenty shows Romney leading 40% to 32%.  

In this poll, when you read to the bottom of the page and examine the data, you discover the following:

“The PPP poll surveyed 387 likely Florida Republican primary voters on January 28th with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.”(emphasis mine)

Ladies and gentlemen, when you see ANY poll with such a small sample size, it’s GARBAGE.  When you see any poll with a margin of error of more than 3%, it’s likely garbage, particularly if it has a small sample size.  For a state as large and diverse as Florida, any poll that doesn’t survey at least 1500 people, with a margin of error well below 4% is a poll intended to generate a headline and drive you.

Now, here’s their insurance: With a margin of error of 5%, if you add that to Gingrich, and subtract it from Romney, this poll may actually tell you nothing, because Gingrich could in fact be leading.  This kind of poll is GARBAGE as any serious analyst will tell you, and worse, when you see so-called analysts on television referencing such polls, you know they are LYING to you because as trained professionals, THEY ABSOLUTELY KNOW BETTER.

Sorry, I didn’t mean to “shout” at you, but I am disgusted with the media manipulation, as they try to create some false momentum in Romney’s direction. You should let others know this too.  387 people? Really? A margin of error of 5%??? That’s a potential 10-point swing in either direction, which gives them cover if their pushing doesn’t work out, but also helps them create a theme.

Don’t believe such polls. They are intended to mislead you. I have rejected four such polls from publication on this site in the last month because they were this egregious.

The Myth of Gingrich “Unfavorability” Exposed

Sunday, January 22nd, 2012

Not Electable?

In a story certain to raise a few eyebrows, and sure to anger the GOP establishment, CNSNews is reporting on the results of a poll that show Gingrich defeated the media by a margin of 54% to 14% in what must be considered a refutation of the latest media theme on Gingrich’s “questionable electability.” The PPP poll reflects what most of us have suspected all along:  A reasonably conservative candidate who will stand up and take on the media will gain the overwhelming support of conservatives in particular, but will also tend to gain support from independents and moderates who share the general skepticism about the media’s agenda in every political event or issue.

This is indicative of the problem for Mitt Romney, because while he tries very hard to avoid offending the media, what he’s really doing is annoying those voters who believe the media is out of touch, or even “in the tank” for Romney.  Romney continues to get somewhat more favorable treatment from the media. This too-cozy relationship is something Romney ought to sever, because it’s actually hurting him more than it will ever help him, particularly among conservatives who already worry that Romney is simply too liberal, a characterization they attach also to the media.