Posts Tagged ‘Primary’

Democrats Flooding Presidential Field

Sunday, January 13th, 2019

The latest Democrat to announce she’ll throw her hat into the ring is Hawaiian Representative Tulsi Gabbard.  The 37-year-old combat veteran joins a growing list of Democrats with short résumés crowding the field.  Of course, among Democrats, such a politician stands some chance of winning the nomination, if only because Democrats seem to seek out electoral phenomena rather than qualified leaders.  In some rare cases, like in 2008, they’re able to prevail.  Across America, there are dozens of female Democrat politicians who want to be the first female president.  It’s not to say there aren’t any in the Republican party, but Republican women generally seek to make their own résumés stronger, knowing that while the media will give popular Democrats a pass on qualifications, there’s no chance a Republican will ever be treated that way.  Young and relatively attractive, Gabbard has been cultivating an image as a “moderate” in her party, but it’s all show.  In the end, she’s another leftist, and she will advance the interests of the state.  Even twenty years ago, I’d have said she’s nuts.  Nowadays, given the direction of the Democrat Party, that seeks power at the expense of all else, anything is possible.  In a rational civilization, none of these people would have a chance, and that’s a problem for Democrats.

Gabbard is writing a memoir, which is another laughable notion, in my view.  I’m sixteen years her senior, and I don’t warrant a memoir.  In fact, I don’t want to read a person’s autobiography or memoir until they’re at least sixty years old, and then, they’d better have something compelling to say.   At thirty-seven years of age, the last four spent in Congress, what exactly has she done that is so memorable?  I don’t wish to belittle her combat experience, as she did her duty and did it honorably by all reports, but it wasn’t exactly like Audie Murphy’s. It’s also useful to note that she was a legislative aid to long-time Hawaiian Senator Daniel Akaka, a mostly useless legislator but reliable vote for the Democrats.  I don’t know that this is the source of her qualification.  By the time the 2020 campaign begins in earnest later this year, she’ll have roughly five years in the House of Representatives.  For the same reason I don’t think Robert Francis “BETO” O’Rourke is qualified on the basis of his congressional service, neither is she.

To report it bluntly, this is a problem that face most of the younger Democrats who plan on running for the Presidency: They’re not really an accomplished lot, all in all.  That doesn’t mean they can’t win, but it does mean they have serious credibility problems with a huge proportion of voters.  The most likely nominee is probably former Vice President Joe Biden, who despite his age, has plenty of pull within the Democrat Party establishment.  If Gabbard and some of the other younger Democrats are shrewd, they know this and will try to hitch themselves to Biden as the Vice Presidential candidate, and that could be Gabbard’s play here.  She doesn’t have the name recognition even within her own party yet, but if she plays her cards right, she might elevate herself in this way.

Part of the problem for Democrats is that they have either old tired bulls like Biden and a completely damaged old socialist like Bernie Sanders(I-VT,) or crazy, damaged moon-bats like Elizabeth Warren(D-MA). This leaves the inexperienced youngsters like Gabbard.  That’s not a solid path to the presidency, and if President Trump decides to seek a second term, his list of accomplishments to date will make him formidable for re-election.  Never forget that the power of incumbency is huge.  Few sitting presidents are ever defeated, and it takes a truly terrible performance for the people who elected a President to reverse their previous vote.

What I think candidates like Gabbard indicate is the frailty of the Democrat Party.  She would make a formidable candidate if she first spent some time as Governor, or something along those lines, but at present, she’s not ready.  This is the case for many Democrats in this rapidly expanding field.  There’s almost no chance they’ll be elected, but rank-and-file Democrats under forty tend to vote on emotion, so one can never say “never.”  During his two terms, Barack Obama did very little to grow the next generation of Democrat politicians.  They have some youngsters with promise, but they need more experience.  One might consider the laughable young New York Congressional member, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and it’s easy to see how Democrats can become so enthusiastic about her.  She’s raising unholy Hell at the moment, but it’s only a matter of time until leadership in the party reins her in.

Democrats face a serious problem in 2020.  Their surplus of viable candidates is mostly illusory, as demonstrated by Gabbard.  Strictly, she’s apparently a natural born citizen who has obtained the age of 35 years, but apart from military service and a few terms in Congress, I don’t see any accomplishments in her history that imply a significant or compelling qualification.  There is no record of having accomplished anything.  Where is the legislative record?  It’s pretty thin.  All in all, this is what most of the Democrats must confront.  Their old bulls have serious weaknesses.  If the Democrats run Clinton again, they’ll be beaten even worse than in 2016.  If Bernie runs, it will be a catastrophe of competing grievances against him.  He’s too damaged now to win the Presidency, and it’s now getting worse daily with the latest revelations about his 2016 campaign.  Biden certainly has a chance at winning the nomination, and with a younger, vibrant Vice Presidential running mate, perhaps like Gabbard, he might be able to pull it off.  The truth is, however, that despite their apparent electoral advantages, Democrats have a serious problem: They’re mostly not likable, by and large, and in their party, that emotional pull is a prerequisite, but even where they meet it, they’re desperately inexperienced.  As they flood in to fill the field, they should take care not to leave their few viable contenders in the position of lifeguards surrounded by a desperate crowd of drowning people.  Those who find themselves drowning may drag the stronger swimmers under with them.

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Romney and Santorum: Dead Heat in Michigan Polls

Monday, February 27th, 2012

Close in Michigan

This shouldn’t have been close.  In 2008, Mitt Romney won in Michigan by nearly double-digits.  The very idea that the son of a Michigan governor should happen to find himself in this position demonstrates how thoroughly many conservatives have tired of establishment candidates.  What should have been a walk-over won’t be, and instead we’re likely to see a terribly close contest that may come down to the wire.  If Romney loses in Michigan, he might as well go home, because if he can’t win here, and convincingly, I don’t know how you can argue he will ever beat Barack Obama.  There’s also an Arizona primary on Tuesday, and at the time of this writing, that contest is not nearly so tight, with polls indicating a big Romney lead.

After getting the endorsement of another Republican governor, with Jan Brewer endorsing him over the weekend, but she seems to have more pull with Arizonans than Nikki Haley demonstrated with South Carolinians.  There is also a healthy Mormon segment of the vote in Arizona, so taken together, Romney probably will maintain that edge.  Let us also remember he has the endorsement of US Senator and former Presidential candidate John McCain, who was able to stave off J.D. Hayworth in a primary challenge in 2010.  I expect that he will win there comfortably, but if it closes up significantly, it will hint at the continued weakness of Mitt Romney.

Romney needs to win Michigan on Tuesday, but conservatives need Rick Santorum to win.  There is certainly reason to believe Santorum could pull it off, not merely because of the closeness in the polls, but also because he’s doing particularly well among evangelical Christians in the state.  Naturally, Romney has a significant cash advantage, as he has had throughout this primary season, but as has been seen in some states, that advantage doesn’t necessarily equate to victory if the grass-roots activists in a state begin to push for somebody else.  If Romney can pull off an unexpectedly large victory in Michigan Tuesday, he’ll certainly retake the initiative, but if it’s very close, or worse, he loses entirely, it may be a show-stopped.  Tuesday’s  returns will offer us a good deal of insight into the rest of the primary season.  If it’s close, it’s not over by a long-shot in the run-up to Super Tuesday, and if it’s a blow-out, it may well signal a consolidation in favor of the victor.

Florida: It Isn’t Over

Monday, January 30th, 2012

Florida Primary Looms

Most media outlets are reporting an advantage for Romney in the double-digits, but in looking at most of these polls as I reported Sunday, most have samples that are far too small and margins of error that are much too high.  I’ve seen a concerted effort to raise the sample sizes, and lower the margins of error, but they’re still diddling around with the numbers.  They’re hoping the net propaganda effect will leverage in favor of Romney getting more votes from those who are undecided.  This isn’t surprising, because the GOP establishment is getting a good deal of help from their friends in the media. It’s for this reason I am convinced that the Florida primary will be much closer than is being reported, and it’s also why I suspect there’s still a chance for Gingrich.

The whole purpose of the media massacre that was inflicted on Gingrich last week and through the weekend was to soften his support.  At the same time, I saw a media and establishment theme emerge in which the question of Romney’s Mormon faith was the issue, but not by people opposing him.  Instead, it was from his own camp, alleging that the people of South Carolina just hate Mormons.  You know, that “Christian Right” who have some sort of alleged problem with Romney’s religion.  In this entire campaign season, the only people I have ever heard raise this question were either media shills for Romney, or campaign shills for Romney. I’m located firmly in the midst of the Bible Belt, and I haven’t heard a single person say one word about Romney’s faith.  What I have heard them say, often and loudly, is that Romney’s problem is his liberal record.

I am not inclined to believe this election in Florida is “all over,” or that even were it, that this primary race is “all over.”  It’s simply not true.  Wednesday morning, we will have conducted exactly four states’ worth of caucusing and voting, with forty-six to follow.  I don’t know whose calculus indicates that this somehow wraps things up for Romney, even assuming he wins in Florida, but I suspect Florida is going to be a good deal closer than the media pretends.  My evidence is admittedly second-hand, apart from the manipulated polls, but there’s also the sense on the ground that Gingrich is drawing larger crowds in similar venues, and Gingrich is getting Tea Party support, and this combined with the story NewsMax is carrying about an ongoing Gingrich surge suggest to me the “it’s all over” meme is just that, and nothing more. My advice to Floridians remains the same:  Tomorrow morning, if you have yet to vote, go to the polls and defeat Mitt Romney, even if it means holding your nose. Nothing will deliver a more important message to the establishment, that still doesn’t take you seriously even after the whip-saw turnaround in South Carolina. It’s not over, not now, and not even tomorrow.

Flash: Florida Tea Party Coalition Goes Newt

Saturday, January 28th, 2012

Meeting Tea Party Patriots in Florida

In another setback in relations between Mitt Romney and Tea Party folk, news now comes from Florida that a coalition of Tea Partiers has endorsed Newt Gingrich, first to beat Mitt Romney, and then to beat Barack Obama in November.  This is another repudiation of Mitt Romney among Tea Party patriots, and it’s important to note that Mitt has largely brought this on himself.  A candidate seeking the GOP nomination simply cannot afford to belittle, disparage, or ignore the Tea  Party.  They are a bold and refreshing, rejuvenating segment of the conservative electorate, and it’s been clear all along that Romney has been ignoring them at his own electoral peril.  On Tuesday, we’ll get some indication of their relative electoral strength in Florida, but indications are that Tea Party folk are tending to break in Gingrich’s favor, much as was the case in South Carolina one week ago.  It’s tight, but we’ll know for sure Tuesday evening.

South Carolina Primary: Poll

Saturday, January 21st, 2012

Palmetto State Polls

As voters in the Palmetto State head to the polls on Saturday morning, I thought it would be interesting to put up a some poll questions, not only for South Carolinians, but for readers generally.  Obviously, there’s quite a lot at stake in this small southern state, but given the media focus on the contest, and all the controversies that have surrounded it, size seems not to be an issue.  Candidates have been pressing the flesh and volunteers have been working overtime, as the media bombardment of advertising has hit an all-time record, not only in the sheer volume of it, but also in terms of the content.  By many accounts, this has been one of the nastiest campaigns people on the ground in South Carolina can remember.

Many will be happy when this day comes and goes, so their phones will stop ringing with robo-calls and their mailboxes will contain anything other than the SuperPAC junk mail that has been flooding the state.  Finally, they’ll  be able to turn on the television without being bombarded by political ads,and we will know who this state has chosen.

Here are three poll questions for you, and I will reveal the results after the polls close in South Carolina.

FoxToolsSunday “All-Stars” Reveals Establishment Hacks

Sunday, November 6th, 2011

All-Star or All Wet?

Foxnews has become the channel I am least interested in watching.  Fox News Sunday’s only panelist with any credibility was Juan Williams.  Paul Gigot, Evan Bayh, Bill Kristol, and of course, the moderator, Chris Wallace rounded out the show.   In summation: two GOP flacks, and three DNC tools.   Bill Kristol said flatly that Herman Cain “He’s not going to be the nominee, he was never going to be the nominee.”  Paul Gigot, hedging,  said Cain “probably won’t get the nomination.”  I am so tired of these establishment weanies who are seldom right about anything taking their shots at authentic conservatives.  Let’s be honest about it: How did Bill Kristol’s panting, arrogant support of the “Arab Spring” turn out?  After spending weeks bashing Glenn Beck who said at the time that we should worry about the direction of events in Egypt, you would think Kristol might learn some humility.

These wizards, with all of their laughing at Herman Cain simply don’t get it:  Conservatives have no patience for the establishment this cycle. They can climb aboard, or they can become more irrelevant, but their days of pretending to conservatives that they really know best are over.  It’s a sad day when even Juan Williams will defend Cain, but the rest of these tools are content to throw him under the bus.  Watch the video of Kristol, that genius “all-star:”

It’s not so much that I love Herman Cain as it is that I have come to detest the establishment GOP nearly as much as the hard left of the Democrat party.  News cycle after news cycle, event after event, for as long as I can remember, these Republican insiders, these geniuses who tell us which candidates can win, seem to get it wrong until the answer is obvious, and then they backtrack in a cacophony of harrumphing.  The basic problem with these elite Republican tools is that none of them share much in common with the bulk of us out here in fly-over country.  When they venture out of their narrow corridor of insider politics and Washington DC intrigue, they don’t spend much time getting to know us.

It’s a bit like the falsely accused man who retains an attorney who advises his client to “take the deal.”  They pretend to know what is in our best interests, and when we revolt against it, effectively saying “no deal,” they pout and become petulant at the impertinence of our claim of innocence on the charges.  “Just take the deal,” they implore.  “Take Mitt.”  For precisely the same reasons that I would never cop a plea on a charge of which I knew I had been innocent, neither will I accept this deal.  After all, it’s not all about avoiding jail, as they would argue, but as you and I know, about avoiding the damage to our reputation, seeking justice, and being vindicated by evidence, logic and reason.  While we explain in impassioned terms why it is that we cannot support a moderate of any description, they nod, they seem to be listening, but in the end they look at us and explain why “the deal” is better.  NO!

In my world, only criminals accept “the deal.”  In the world out here where prosecutors frequently sell out the interests of justice and tax-payers, what these Republican insiders do on behalf of our country is nearly the same.  “Come on, make the deal.”  Their argument is persuasive to some, and in some years to many, but in this election cycle, the conservative base of the party has begun to understand that you cannot make a deal with the devil and come off clean, or even victorious.  We’ve been through this too many times to mention. Imagine the ongoing conversation between conservatives and establishment Republicans:

“Gerald Ford?”

“He is the sitting President…”

“But he’s not one of us!”

“Just take the deal.” 

We did. How did that work out? In 1980, it was no better, but it turned out well.

“Just accept Gerald Ford and George HW Bush.  That’s the deal.”

“We like Reagan.”

“He’s too old, and too conservative, and the liberals are right: He’s a B-movie actor.”

“He was an effective governor in our most populated state, and we like him.”

“Come on, take the deal.”

“No.”

Odd, this time it turned out pretty well, don’t you think? In 1988, they told us to take the deal again:

“You can trust George Bush. He’s just like Ronald Reagan, bless his heart.”

“Are you sure?  He seems a little, er uh, moderate.”

“No, he’ll be fine. He’ll convince you.  See, look at that pledge he made: Read my lips: No new taxes. He’s Reagan part II.”

We grumbled, but we elected him on this basis. When he made deals with Democrats and raised taxes, we again rebelled, some of us leaving the party in 1992, in search of other options.

“Stick with us. Take the deal. It’s better than Clinton.  That Perot guy is a kook.”

“I don’t know… Maybe Perot is a kook, but maybe he’s not.”

This turned out well too, didn’t it? In 1996, the establishment was undeterred and unreformed.

“You have to support Bob Dole.  I’m Bob Dole, and Bob Dole says…”

Epic Fail

Then, in 2000, they offered us another Bush.

“No, this Bush is different. Really.  He’s not like his father, much more conservative. Just like Reagan.”

“Are you sure?  What’s all this business about compassionate conservative and new tone?”

“Trust us, it will work out. That’s just code so the Democrats think he’s more moderate.”

Then we got four years of socialism obscured by the tragedy of 9/11.  In 2004, however, they were back:

“Look, it’s really simple. He’s the incumbent. You have to dance with the one you brought, right, and besides, John Kerry? He’s WAY worse.”

We fell for this line too.  By the end, we wanted Bush gone so badly that had he been eligible for another term, some of us might have voted Obama just to be rid of Bush.

“Look, we know John McCain isn’t conservative, but this Obama fellow is really dangerous.”

“We know Obama is dangerous, but so is John McCain.”

“Okay, how about we sweeten the pot and give you a good VP pick, say, oh, this Governor from Alaska?  After all, McCain is getting on in years…”

“Okay fine, but we don’t think we can trust him.”

“It will be fine, you’ll see.”

John McCain:

“Due to the crisis, I’m suspending my campaign….”

“AAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHH”

Now we come to our current predicament.

“Mitt Romney is running again.  You liked him in the 2008 primaries.”

“Actually, we liked him better than McCain, which is roughly like saying we liked the prospect of having our wisdom teeth pulled slightly more than having our hands amputated.  How about: No Romney.”

“We could put up Tim Pawlenty!”

“No. We’re looking at Michele Bachmann.”

“What about Mitch Daniels? He’s a nice guy.”

“He may be a nice guy, when we can see him over the podium. He’s appointed some really idiotic judges.  Wasn’t he the Bush OMB director?”

“Turns out, Mitch doesn’t want to run. Well, his wife doesn’t. How about Rick Perry?”

“To tell you the truth, it’s hard to stay excited about Perry. He’s too much like one of yours. How about Palin?”

“Nah, Palin won’t run.  Even if she did, she’d lose.  Palin has been marginalized. She’s a quitter.”

“By and among whom?  We like her.  McCain quit. Remember that whole suspended campaign business?”

“Well, anyway, how about Chris Christie? Any takers?”

“No. What about Herman Cain?”

“Cain can’t win. Cain won’t win.”

“Why not?”

“Because we will sabotage him any chance we get.”

“Just like you did Palin?”

“Yep, it’s Mitt or bust.”

“Say, why do you establishment types keep screwing us?”

There is no establishment. It’s all in your head.”

“Yeah, right, and there’s no evil either… We’ve heard this ploy before.”

This conversation is only partially fictional.  While these precise words weren’t spoken by a particular agent of the GOP establishment, it’s nevertheless the meaning of what we and they said to one another.  Each and every time conservatives have compromised their values and went along with the moderates, the establishment, and the Bush clan(all mostly one and the same,) we have been hammered.  Each time.  The surrenders, the failures, the endless excuse-making, all so that this crowd of wizards can tell us how to live rather than having Democrats telling us how to live…  Why?

I submit to my fellow conservatives that we cannot afford another deal.  Whomever we select, it cannot be another one of their choosing.  Honest to goodness, listening to the chatter on Fox News Sunday, it is getting increasingly difficult to tell the difference between the Republicans and Democrats.  One gets the sense that they’ve all spent too much time at the same cocktail parties swilling the same statist kool-aid.

No thanks.  I’ve had enough, and while I won’t speak for the rest of you, I suspect many of you are with me this time:

No deal.

Will Karl Rove Tell Us It’s Too Late for Christie Too?

Saturday, October 1st, 2011

They Think We Can Win With This Guy?

I should be fair.  It’s not simply Karl Rove, but the whole GOP establishment class(which George Will says doesn’t exist,) demonstrating this double-standard in media punditry.  Despite her impertinence in other respects, at least S.E. Cupp included Christie in her demanding article of Friday, but I’m beginning to wonder if all of the attention on Christie isn’t intended for another purpose.  While it’s difficult to stomach the hypocrisy of those who have argued that it’s too late for a Palin entry, saying precious little about a prospective Christie entry in the same context,  this could be a media phenomenon with another purpose entirely.  What if by holding forth all of  this Christie speculation, the GOP establishment is trying to accomplish something else entirely?  What could that be?  With the sudden spectacle of an accelerated primary calendar, we must consider what else may be afoot.

The Bush people are still strong in Florida, much as they remain in Texas.  The recent move of Florida’s GOP primary to January was done with the advice and blessing of the GOP establishment there.  This is widely seen as a way to prop up Romney, and to lessen the impact of insurgents, particularly of the Tea Party stripe.  It may also be a manner in which to eliminate down-ballot challengers in what otherwise would have been hotly-contested congressional primaries.

The GOP establishment understands that if they are to have their guy, they probably will need to go with Mitt. They may view him as imperfect to their ends, but he’s close enough, and they think he can win a general election against Obama (if there is one.)  What moving the primaries up does to candidates is to shorten the time they have to grab mind-share in the electorate.  At present, Romney is probably the clear front-runner, and to kill off any insurgents will require them to get this over with quickly.

At the same time, Christie may be used as a delaying tactic.  If they can cause Palin to hold of just a while longer in entering, assuming she will, then the longer she holds off, the narrower her window will be, particularly in light of this accelerated schedule.   For reasons we’ve discussed at length, there are many good reasons for Palin to hold off in the conventional schedule, and the GOP establishment knows this which is why they spent the entirety of the spring and summer trying to goad her into an earlier entry, to which they would have responded with a Christie or Daniels or even Jeb Bush.

With Romney now having withstood a serious challenge for the top spot by Rick Perry, they’ve come back around to the realities which may mean that they’re left with Romney as their best remaining bet.  Don’t be surprised that after another week of speculation, Christie comes out and says “Well, it’s just way too late now folks.”  This will then be used as a way to hammer Palin if she enters thereafter, so as to attack her with their continuing meme of sabotage.  Of course, she’ll quickly overcome that narrative, and the establishment knows it too, which is why they’ve hurried up the primary schedule:  They will try to knock Palin out by depriving her of the time she needs to carry the ball all the way down the field in time to score.  I believe this underestimates Palin’s appeal by a fair margin, and it may be the establishment’s last available timing-based play to keep her from the nomination if she chooses to pursue it.

If she gets in before Christie swears off his own entry, he might not demur at all, leaping in behind her, saying that while he thought it’s too late, if Palin can make a go of it, so can he.  What all of this may boil down to is an attempt by the establishment to wrest control of the timing card from Palin.  They’re trying to place Christie into the position she has occupied all these months, and the willing media, particularly FoxNews, is willing to go along.  The liberal press will go for anything that creates turmoil in the GOP, particularly between the establishment and the base, so they’re along for their part in this whole thing.

As I suspected, it will come down to careful timing, and as I believe based on previous instances, Governor Palin may be the master of this sort of thing.  She has demonstrated very good instincts and this close to the end of the beginning, I don’t think she’s likely to make any missteps, thereby turning it into what the establishment hopes will bethe beginning of the end.  Expect the unexpected, and be ready to roll.

Election Seasons are Fluid

Tuesday, September 27th, 2011

Is Time Really Up?

It’s funny how some people get hung up on imaginary deadlines.  You can bet the media loves to create them, but what should you and I make of them? For months now, we have had the media and establishment DC-insiders try to tell us when Governor Palin should get in, or when it was too late, and all the rest of their game.  Worse, from my point of view, among some supporters, there’s an impatience that while understandable enough, always seems to gravitate toward the theme that “she must jump in NOW!”  Ladies and gentlemen, please permit me to suggest that there’s nothing to be gained from an entry now.

Today, in the blog section of the New York Times Online, the headline proclaims that “Palin is on the Verge of a Decision about Presidential Run.”  Well, knowing that, we should…do what?  The author of the piece again pumps up the expectation game, and again seems to push her toward entering sooner rather than later, and then another piece appearing in the Washington Post Online relegates Palin to “second tier status” based on a CNN poll that shows Palin over 20 points behind Obama in the head-to-head, which is at significant variance with that Marist/McClatchy poll of last week that finds Palin within 5 points of Obama.  So while one side tries to encourage her entry, the other side tries to dissuade her.   Both publications are establishment outlets.  When one observes the establishment presenting conflicting narratives, what you can guess with some confidence is that they’re hoping is to make something stick.  What neither of them suggests is that she should wait.  It’s either “jump now” or “go away.”

I’m not offering advice, but I’ll be honest: I like Governor Palin’s strategy of waiting.  Having waited this long in what seems a strategy to let some of this sort itself out, now that this strategy is beginning  to pay off, it’s no time to accept an arbitrary notion about some date on a calendar.  Late September?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Middle October?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  Elections seasons are fluid, and the most successful candidates remain adaptive and flexible.  If you wish to succeed, you must adjust your plans to suit the situation on the ground.  I think the message to take from Governor Palin’s refusal to be trapped into some arbitrary time-table is this:  She wants to remain flexible to make her announcement when it will have the most impact.  A candidate committed to victory should do no less.

Be patient, my friends. Election seasons are fluid. Circumstances change.  Who would have predicted Perry’s verbal melt-down, excepting me and a few others, even three weeks ago?  Things change.  The unexpected happens.  People and situations are not perfectly predictable, or we wouldn’t bother with elections.  Our preferred candidate should do her best to remain flexible, and not getting pinned-down to a certain date or range of them is a great way to keep her options open.

What’s Bill Clinton’s Angle?

Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

Contemplating a Hillary Candidacy?

Any time you see Bill Clinton slithering onto a stage, you can assume something sneaky is close at hand.  As BusinessInsider is reporting, Clinton is critical of Obama’s Deficit Plan on the basis that it raises taxes during a recession.  Now for all his spouting about being a “centrist Democrat,” the truth is that Bill Clinton isn’t really a small government sort of guy, so you may wonder what’s really going on here.  As I explained to you that Barack Obama’s Deficit/Debt Plan, which is a hard-left plan going nowhere, but offered as a way to solidify Obama’s hard-left base, you might consider against whom he wishes to defend his re-nomination.  The answer is none other than his own Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

What Bill Clinton is doing in this instance is a step in positioning, whereby Hillary will challenge Obama from “the center” which is ground she doesn’t occupy, but in a contested primary, she might be able to claim, knowing that in any general election, the base will come home to her.  It’s basically the Democrat version of what Romney is gambling: Capture the more moderate wing of his party, and gamble that the base will support him in the general election.

This is a strategy with which the Clintons are very familiar.  It’s how they managed to climb into power the first time around, with a little help from Ross Perot.  Slick is simply laying the groundwork for Hillary, who while claiming she will not run, nevertheless seems increasingly likely to jump in given the extreme dissatisfaction among the base of the party.  No in truth, the hard-core left of the Democrat party knows Hillary is every bit as socialistic as they are, but what she offers is a fresh chance to fool independents and moderates.  Obama is so damaged with the political middle in the country that it may be completely impossible for him to recover.

The Clintons are gambling on a little positioning to place Hillary to the right of Obama, and Bill’s distancing from Obama’s proposed tax increases is a part of laying that groundwork.  Be prepared to be told that “Hillary is a centrist.”  Don’t believe it, because it’s a thorough lie, but that’s how it will be presented. This is why Hillary has carefully cultivated an image as a hard-working, always on-the-go Secretary of State:  She’s trying to establish her foreign policy and executive experience credentials.  As the head of the Department of State, she will claim that experience, but the problem will be in demonstrating her effectiveness.

Don’t be surprised when Hillary jumps into the race.  She’s already the most popular Democrat in the country.  When you begin to combine all of these stories, you see a clear pattern, and it looks increasingly probably that Hillary Clinton will join the race.  That will make for a knock-down, drag-out fight as Obama has lost the confidence of many in his party, and in left-wing intelligentsia.  The Democrats aren’t so happy or in nearly the lock-step bliss they would like for you to believe.

Update: Deeper into the Morass of Obama Demagoguery

Monday, September 19th, 2011

Presidential Hot Air

One e-mailer asked me a question about my most recent post on Barack Obama and his Deficit/Debt Plan, and his Jobs Plan. It’s a question worth further explanation:

Mark, Great Site!  I have one question for you. How does getting in good with his base help him win the general election? I can see how it helps him avoid a contested primary as you said, but won’t this hurt him in the general? Jim

That’s a great question, and thinking about it, my earlier post did neglect to explain that aspect, and as I thought about answering Jim’s question, a couple of things more.  First, to answer Jim’s question, by itself, it doesn’t.  That said, you must win the nomination to win the general, and a primary fight will hurt Obama because he’ll need to go way left to win a serious challenge, and that would happen in a time-frame when moderates and independents will already be watching, and since those voters are already abandoning him, he can’t afford a protracted primary fight.  Better to stop it cold now, when most people still aren’t watching.  If he kills off a primary challenge by moving way left, he still has plenty of time to move back nearer to center in time for the general election.

Obama’s strategy must also include an uptick in the demagoguery over the differences in income.  This is typical leftist Class-Warfare rhetoric with which we’re all very familiar by now.  The tactic will be to move nearer the center again, as he did in 2008, and continue to attack “the rich” all while never mentioning that he’s deep into crony-capitalism.  He may even try to float some show-trials in the media aimed at some of his corporate cronies while he feigns innocence.  We will see a level of demagoguery that will push us to the brink of civil disorder if Obama has his way.  It’s really the only way he can win.

So thank you Jim for asking the question. I hope this helps explain what’s going on with Obama’s “Plan.”  It’s first a “No Primary Challenger Plan,” to be followed by a “Move slightly to center while playing demagogue against the rich and business re-election plan.”

One of the problems with a cornered irrational is that you never know how they may lash out.  Obama is cornered, and his entire philosophy, indeed the whole philosophy of the left, is completely irrational.  They will be lashing out.

Barack Obama’s Desperately Phony Deficit Reduction Plan

Monday, September 19th, 2011

More Presidential Hot Air for His Base

On Monday, Barack Obama introduced an alleged deficit reduction jobs plan that offers three dollars in tax increases for every dollar off spending cuts it promises.  This is another extension of his outrageous spending policy.  There’s nothing new included in this plan, as he proposes a new “Buffett Tax” on wealthier people including small businesses.   This is a failure, and it’s not very likely to get through the House of Representatives, unless John Boehner is determined to be known as the Surrender-Monkey Speaker, but the question must be asked:  Since everybody knows this is a failed policy, why is he insisting on a leftist approach to an issue of such national import?   The answer may be as simpler:  He’s offering this as a way to stave off a primary challenge, as Ralph Nader and others begin to consider challenging him.

Weak as he is, this may be the most serious threat as Obama has fallen to all-time low approval among liberals.  That’s a shocking development, and his internal polls have been telling him this for weeks.  This is the reason for his pathetic Debt plan, and it speaks volumes about how subservient he is is rapidly becoming to the extreme left in his party for the sake of his own re-election.  We know Barack Obama can’t believe raising taxes in the midst of a re-emerging recession because he’s told us before that “the last thing you want to do is raise taxes in the middle of a recession.”  Or does he?  This is an example of how he’s unable to move toward the center, and he’s a prisoner of the radical left in his party’s base.  He dare not go along with reasonable spending cuts, tax cuts, or even tax freezes, because his base will politically crucify him.  The number of people on the extreme left end of his party now seriously discussing a primary challenge is the most thorough difficulty he faces.  If he loses his base, having lost the moderate or conservative Democrats, and most Independents, he’s well on his way to cratering.  He must serve his radical leftist friends, or concede his re-election altogether.

In trying to shore up his base, we are beginning to see the most pathetic sorts of posturing in the liberal press.  Now, they’re trying to paint him as the “first Jewish President” over at NewYorkMagazine.  This is because there has been some evidence that Obama is losing support among American Jews, and now, they’re taking  this approach to help him with this part of the base of the Democrat party.  Let’s be honest about it: He’s in significant political trouble, and no amount of window-dressing is going to turn that around.

Today’s Deficit and Debt Reduction Plan was merely another attempt to shore up his base.  It is in no way a serious proposal unless Boehner decides to treat it as one.  It will be your task to make sure that doesn’t  happen.  Barack Obama is trying to prevent a primary challenge, knowing that it will cause him more grief than any  Republican could dream of doing.  Of course, Joseph Farah over at WND has another idea, but I think it’s seriously flawed.  Still, Obama knows he’s in trouble which is why he will now rush to every microphone he can find to propose plans that demonstrate his hard-left commitment to his base.  That’s all this plan really is, and to treat it as anything else is to miss the important meaning it actually contains: Barack Obama is terrified of his own base, and for all the wrong reasons.

UPDATED: Deeper into the Morass of Obama Demagoguery

The Battle on the Right

Tuesday, August 30th, 2011

There Can Be Only One

We’ve witnessed the opening salvos in the battle for the nomination.  The punditry has lined up to take shots at GOP candidates, including those not yet in the race.  Each declared candidate is scrambling to establish a niche with the primary electorate, and as they do, there exists not only a whispering dissatisfaction with the current choices, but also an increasing friction between them as they attempt to consolidate their support.  In the most recent polling, Governor Perry has the clear lead, at the moment, with Governor Romney tailing off.   More significantly, Michele Bachmann has fallen to fourth place behind an undeclared Sarah Palin. As the battle lines are drawn, we’re witnessing a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party.

Rick Perry is the present beneficiary of a largely unknown record outside his home state, Texas, but this too is beginning to change as more and more people are beginning to notice that apart from the swagger and bronc-busting style, Perry hasn’t always been a conservative, and it leads to some doubts about his sincerity.  Some have described him as a RINO with a drawl, but the truth is that he hasn’t been substantially vetted on the national stage, and as his record become more widely known, he’s likely to experience a decline when his record  as a lifelong politician with too many corporate friends becomes known.  This is the truth of what caused him to see a strong primary challenge from upstart Debra Medina in the 2010 Texas gubernatorial race.  While Medina never attained the name recognition, it’s important to remember that the main cause of her defeat was one self-destructive interview that caused her implosion.  This is instructive, and actually serves to demonstrate Perry’s true weakness among Texas conservatives and Tea Party members:  It’s not so much that he won in 2010, as it is the case that his primary opponent, whose entrance into the race already demonstrated Perry’s troubles, essentially disqualified herself.  This weakness of Perry’s is going to become more obvious as his record is examined.

Mitt Romney is the great establishment hope of the left-most edge of the GOP, and the current favorite of the establishment.  He’s been hurt by Perry’s entry precisely because some of his support didn’t see another strong conservative candidate in the race, and Romney isn’t interested in ideological consistency. Instead, the notion of “who can win,”  focusing on Independents and the swing vote has come to dominate his appeal.  For this reason, Romney has adopted the position of mostly ignoring the conservative base, and seems not only uninterested in courting Tea Party folks, but also in avoiding them in order to appeal to his niche.  Romney’s gamble is simple: If he can get the nomination, conservatives will vote for him anyway.  We may be seeing the first signs that Romney is abandoning this strategy, as he traveled to Texas on Monday.   Whether he shifts his approach, or sticks with his moderate positions is yet to be determined, but he ought to remember who he’s slighting in the hunt for the nomination, as it may come back to haunt him in the primary even if he succeeds.  Democrats slavishly vote for whomever their party puts up.  Conservatives are much more apt to stay home.  If this brings to mind images of another McCain or Dole style defeat, you’re probably on target.

Michele Bachmann is a fine candidate, but she’s fading fast for a number of reasons.  One is that her theoretical support from the Tea Party is based on a fallacious notion of substitution many of her supporters (and perhaps the candidate herself) wrongly believed:  She’s not Sarah Palin.  Slowly, grudgingly, some of her supporters are discovering this too.  It’s not to say Representative Bachmann has no appeal, but instead that her appeal has been largely augmented by the imaginings of her early supporters.  Her tendency to make gaffes of one sort or another is taking its toll, whether serious or largely manufactured or inflated by the media.  Some have discovered that she’s not quite so close to the average people as may have been thought, and it that factor is inflicting a cost too.  Lastly, many within her campaign, and frankly, within the media, bought the media-born notion that there’s only room in the campaign for one Republican woman, and while I reject that notion, it’s turning out that may be true in some sense, but sadly for her, Michele Bachmann isn’t that woman.

This leaves us to consider Sarah Palin.  Will she run?  Many observers think so, and to some, it’s clear that she’s already running in the sense that she’s largely conducting herself like a candidate, despite the lack of a campaign.  Others insist that she won’t run, but when you examine who they are, they tend to be supporters of another candidate.  That’s telling, given the assault from media pundits she recently endured over the matter of whether she would announce on September 3rd during her speech to the Tea Party of America in Indianola, Iowa.  Part of Palin’s strategy, if she’s to enter, may be to wait for the field to settle some.  We’re now seeing that begin, as all but Romney and Perry (as well as Palin) have fallen to single-digit support among Republicans.  At the same time, there’s still a wide body of undecided voters, many of whom are effectively waiting for the field to settle out before committing.   Perry’s numbers are likely to stabilize, and begin to trail off.  There’s some evidence that this has already begun.   If it continues, there’s a chance that Palin will be able to announce a campaign and emerge as a nearly instantaneous front-runner for the nomination.  If this happens, it will effectively close off Bachmann and those currently below her current standing at 9%.  This will also begin to shut down some of the less successful campaigns.  The real question becomes whether she holds off a bit longer, toward the end of September, not only to await the likely Perry decline, but also to close off later entries.

It’s clear that the politicos know this, which is why they’ve gone on with a flurry of rumor-mongering, trying to goad her into a Labor Day weekend entry, or dissuade her entry altogether.   Worse are the attempts to undermine her by suggesting that she’s not going to run, and will promptly endorse the preferred candidate of whichever person is speaking.  The thing to watch is how much Bachmann may be able to cut back into the Perry support, where she watched much of her own flee after his announcement.  If Palin enters, Bachmann is likely to begin her fall, as many of her supporters move on to the candidate some of them already quietly acknowledge as the “real deal.”  Still, between the three announced candidates among the leading four, they achieve only half of the party’s support.  This implies that the race is wide open for somebody else, and with 10% of the support already leaning to her despite the lack of an official campaign, it doesn’t take a great deal of imagination to notice that  Sarah Palin may well be that somebody.

Four Reasons Why Sarah Palin Will Win

Saturday, August 20th, 2011

Win!

I’ve been approached several times today by doubters who advance arguments as to why Sarah Palin cannot win the nomination, or if she secures  it, why she can’t defeat Barack Obama.  All of the theories I’ve had pitched in my direction today share a couple common faults, and it’s important to point them out here.  The most common reason I’ve heard today is the belief that the Media will destroy her.  That’s silly. Is there a single Republican, never mind conservative, who the media will not seek to destroy to defend their darling, Barack Obama?  Anybody who watched the media in action after McCain’s nomination in 2008 should by now be thoroughly disabused of that shoddy notion.   The Lame-Stream Media has been trying for three years running to destroy Sarah Palin, and there is no chance, having failed thus far, that they will improve results on their limited success.

The problem is that if the media narrative about a person is based on lies, in the longer run, those lies lose effectiveness as people learn the truth from other sources, and worse yet, the lies come back to haunt their purveyors because once the audience, having originally believed them, in the second instance realizes they’ve been scammed, they will thereafter no longer be inclined to believe another pronouncement given voice by that source.  The second most common flaw in the arguments I’ve been hearing and reading today is the dubious assumption that she’s an intellectual lightweight.  Truthfully, there couldn’t be a more ridiculous claim upon which to base one’s criticisms, and yet this is the default argument of those who wish to suggest that Sarah Palin isn’t qualified.  It’s the constant harangue of the elite media types, and it has been a failure repeatedly.  They tried to paint a similar picture of Ronald Reagan, and in fact, every Republican in my memory.  It’s a claim that falls on deaf ears in most quarters, because in the final analysis, it’s simply not believable given all she has already accompished.  Having covered what critics have said, let me move on to my own list of reasons in opposition to these notions.  I firmly believe that Sarah Palin will run, win the nomination, and ultimately the Presidency.

1. Nobody on the Republican side has the ability to raise money like Sarah Palin.  Her numerous supporters are the most rigidly determined of the bunch, and yet they remain more inclined than any to eschew distortions or outright lies in criticisms of the other candidates.  That natural constituency remains one of Governor Palin’s most  precious assets.  Her supporters are leaders unto themselves, needing no prompting or pushing to engage in the contest.  Instead, they’re busily preparing for the campaign they now conclude(and have regarded for some time) as inevitable and right.  One can discern a good deal about a candidate by the quality of leaders that develop and rise in their midst.  In Mrs. Palin’s case, all evidence would support the notion that by her own thoughtful seeding, she’s now harvesting a superior crop.  The media and their political analysts all seem to assert that she has no ground-game and no organization.  To anybody who has been following her for any period of time, this is a laughable misstatement of the facts on par with the storied headline “Dewey Wins!”  Outside her control or direction, Palin supporters have already formed their own grass-roots structure, and that means Governor Palin will put her campaign together in days or hours, rather than weeks or months.

2. The primary election is going to come down to an assessment by Republican primary voters as to who they believe will best represent their interests in the general election.  Considering the candidates on a case-by-case basis, it’s hard to conclude that any have a better understanding of the issues at stake than Governor Palin, and it’s even more difficult to conceive of that Republican candidate who is more closely tied to the conservative base of the party.  Mrs. Palin’s support in the Republican party will come from Main Street, and Anytown, USA, where the values they share meet the reality of the Obama disaster.  This natural affinity for localized concerns magnified and multiplied by replication on a national scale spells doom for other GOP hopefuls.  Nobody gets a warmer welcome from the greater heart of American productivity than the lady from Alaska who has fought on that same field as both a business owner and a politician.  It shows in the crowds she attracts.  She is main-stream America’s real political rock-star, and this is why the remainder of the field now works through distortions and disinformation to dissuade her from the race: They know if she gets rolling, she’ll be almost unstoppable.  Their strategy remains to stop her from starting.

3. Victory for any Republican in the general election of 2012 is going to require the sharpest possible contrast between Barack Obama and his opponent.  As the economy continues to swerve like a drunken driver, curb to curb, and as Obama continues to demonstrate his incompetence for the job, the optics on that side of the scales will be measured against a woman who understands the heart of the trouble in America, and what concrete steps will be required to repair and restore the country.  Obama will have a vault of money, most analysts speculating an amount in excess of a billion dollars, but let’s be honest for a moment and admit that if just ten million of Sarah Palin’s supporters would send in just $100 dollars, she would also eclipse that number. If just her 3 million Facebook fans send in just $300, she would approach that number.  Times are tough, and many of her supporters find themselves on hard times, but as with me, I see each dollar invested in electing Sarah Palin as hastening the day of the country’s restoration and the recovery our economy, and with it, my own farm and prospects.  Many Americans agree, and it is on this point that the matter of money will turn.  It’s also worth noting that her so far unannounced campaign is costing nothing, while most of the remainder of the field has been spending for months.  One of the sharpest points of contrast between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin will be the clear difference between their respective understandings of the importance of energy in the growth and prosperity of the economy, and indeed the country.  As I detailed earlier this week, this difference alone will redound to Governor Palin’s distinct advantage, because people know that life requires energy.  Only death and decay attend its absence.

4. The last reason is the most important: Sarah Palin.  She’s a true patriot, and a real conservative.  It’s not a campaign suit she puts on for the crowds, changing it daily for the sake of a particular audience.  This makes for a consistency that has no real rival, and it also means that her supporters can more easily defend her against frivolous, shrill attacks.  If a candidate believes the same thing today as yesterday, and tomorrow as today, it’s really not hard to respond to critics with facts about the candidate.  This kind of principled consistency is born of knowing what you believe, and why you believe it.  She’s a diligent student of issues great and small, and quickly masters new subjects as they arise.  This makes for an adaptive, flexible campaign.  Mrs. Palin also knows how to capture and hold the attention of people, and it’s an open secret about her success:  She actually listens.  This connects her to any audience, whether one-by-one, or in larger groups and crowds.  Unlike others, she doesn’t see a mass of people as one moving organism, but instead sees people on the personal scale of the individuals who comprise it.  The temptation for most politicians is to see the crowd, and become consumed by the size of the forest while overlooking its trees.  That’s part of the problem in our government too, and her ability to narrow her attention is as precious as it is rare. This is how a politician must connect with a country: One heart, and one mind at a time.

I contend that all of these are reasons that Sarah Palin will run, win the nomination, and defeat Barack Obama in 2012.  When combined with his record of miserable performance, it’s quite possible she’ll do so in epic fashion.  It is true that he has the advantages that every sitting President enjoys, but he also suffers from the overwhelming sense that he’s disconnected, and on a tragically wrong course for the country.  As bad as that is, what’s worse is that it’s unlikely to get substantially better, and instead looks likely to worsen.  With the inflationary policies being adopted by the Federal Reserve, and the debt-piling tendencies of a President and a party addicted to spending, Governor Sarah Palin may well appear on the presidential stage at just the right time to press her advantage and make good on her words: “Mr. President: Game On!

Mindless Hate Begins to Escalate

Saturday, August 20th, 2011

Let 'em Hear it!

I’m not too proud to admit that I enjoy a good debate on Facebook, or other sites, and sure, I’ve been known to get pretty worked up on occasion, but few things get my dander up like the mindless, hate-filled attacks on Sarah Palin and her family.  Since it has become clearer to most that she may well actually enter the race for the GOP nomination, the frequency of hate-filled spew-fests has begun to accelerate in some venues.  What I’ve noticed is that among certain other GOP campaigns, there has been an attempt to dissuade her from running by joining in the hate-fest.   Apparently, these folks weren’t listening when Ronald Reagan explained the 11th commandment he observed, refraining from making personal attacks on fellow Republicans.

The talking points are always the same, and they take nasty stabs at her as a mother, a wife, and a politician, but none of them ever seem to focus on what makes Sarah Palin superior to all the rest: She’s a genuine, sincere leader who has committed to a terrible struggle to preserve our liberties and our nation.  I will always defend that position, and any such leader who takes it.

You can always detect when you’re dealing with another “troll.”  They’re numerous, and seem to multiply whenever conservatives gather.  Some of them will simply be the garden-variety pot-stirring lefty, and you’ll detect them quickly enough, because at least half their number can’t form a cogent line of argumentation that doesn’t condense to: “BECAUSE!”  On the other hand, there’s another brand of troll that sneaks in under the wire pretending to be among your number.  They feign sympathy until they see the opportunity to begin unloading their garbage. It usually takes no more than a post or two to see the first signs.  It will come in the form of “doubts” or “questions” about the intended target’s character, or ability to raise a family.  It’s always some nasty smear, at its root, and it is generally dismissed with ease once you’ve identified them.  They tend to realize they’ve been caught, and beat a hasty retreat, and you can nearly see them saying in Snidely form: “Curses, foiled again.”

The last sort are the obvious shills for some other candidate, who they will do their best not to name for as long as possible, until by their policy preferences, they reveal who it is they must really support.  You can detect them quickly by focusing on a single issue or two of distinction.  In one case this morning, I dealt with one troll who thought he could simply say “Sarah Palin has horrendous policies.”

I immediately responded: “Name one.”   Then came the endless game of back-peddling to avoid the question.  Eventually, it came around to her support of Israel.  I then pointed out the naïveté  of the proposition that we can simply abandon Israel.  This ended the cat-and-mouse game and defined the battle.  After all, if you’re going to attack Sarah Palin’s relative intelligence, you really ought not do so while pretending to yourself  that Ron Paul’s position on Iranian nuclear ambitions or his willingness to abandon Israel signifies “wisdom.”  This same genius suggested she couldn’t win because of her “horrendous policies.”  Sadly for him, 67% of the American people at large likewise support Israel, and more  than 80% view Israel as an important ally.  That says nothing of the even greater support for Israel in the Republican Party.  This fellow was actually suggesting, at least in part, that Sarah Palin could not win, and her policies are horrendous because of her position on Israel, while he offered up Ron Paul as a better substitute(?)  Yet, this guy questions Sarah Palin’s intelligence?

In the end, what was most laughable about one of these incidents was that the thread in question started out with mockery aimed at Sarah Palin being the least substantial candidate, but within two hours, a quick review of the other threads on the page showed all the activity centered around just one thread: The one focusing on Sarah Palin.  That’s a telling anecdote that should hearten Palin supporters, because what it implies is that Governor Palin evokes passion.  Her adversaries and enemies know it, too, and like her, we should take every opportunity to revel in it, because what it all reveals is what we who support her have known all along: She’s real, and she’s a true danger to the establishment.  Their every response or reaction to her makes it unavoidably clear.  Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time to begin dusting off your war-paints.  I think I can hear the first echos of the call coming from away North, quietly now, but growing in the distance, like a faint rumble still… Ssshhh.. Like a train approaching from a way down the track, you can see it in the distance, you can feel its first vibrations, and you might detect just a bit of the sound of the wake it’s plowing through the air, but you don’t get much sense of its speed or inertia until it’s almost too late.  Listen for it. I can almost make it out now: “Game on!”

In the weeks ahead, I expect the rumble to become a full-throated roar, and the naysayers will retreat a bit in awe if we let them hear it.  As they pick up the pace of their hate-filled disinformation, we must answer it, loudly, and at once.  That’s what it’s going to take, from each of us, who have so patiently waited, defending her as needed, but biding our time with her.  The battle cry is coming, and you won’t doubt or wonder when it’s been spoken. I will report it here, but you’ll already know.