In Spite of the Controversy
ABC News is reporting polling data that shows despite the recent allegations, Cain is still rising. Some will wonder how this is possible, but the answer is simple: Without any substantial evidence, this is just a take-down ploy, and Republican voters know it. If you wonder why conservatives are reacting negatively to the allegations, you need only examine the story linked above. ABC cautions that this could change if the nature of the story changes to something more serious. This is a typical media poll, however, in that it seems to be written to push readers in a certain direction, and it’s not very informative. From the article, there’s this paragraph:
Yet the controversy does pose risks for Cain. Just under four in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in this ABC News/Washington Post poll do say the allegations are a serious matter. Half of them say it makes them less apt to support Cain, and Romney leads him for the nomination in this group by nearly 20 points. If views of the seriousness of the issue were to increase, Cain’s support could be at risk.
No! Get OUT! Do they mean to say that if actual evidence of wrong-doing on Cain’s part comes out, some people might change their minds? Of course they would. Notice this, however, when you debunk it. Of those who think these are serious charges as they stand, half say it makes them less likely to support Cain, but Romney leads in that group by nearly 20 points. Do you understand what this is? This is merely a statement of the obvious. I could easily say it this way, too: One in five Republicans supports Mitt Romney, and therefore consider any allegation against upstart Herman Cain good news.
Who is surprised at that? People who think these are serious allegations are prone to support Romney. SHOCKER! That’s nearly as shocking as: “People who believe in socialism vote Democrat.” There’s no surprise in this because moderate Republicans are anti-ideology. They could care less about principle. It’s the only way they could support the candidates they do. More, I’m tired of these polls including any substantial number of “republican-leaning independents.” Unless they’re in an open primary state, or registered as a republican and thus able to vote in the primaries as a republican, for the purposes of this polling, they’re irrelevant. I also don’t want to know about “registered voters,” but insist that polling organizations be honest and poll among “likely voters.” In this case, they merely specified “adults.” Here is the data on this poll:
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,004 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents, and 438 leaned Republicans. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points for the full sample and 5.5 points for leaned Republicans. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
Mark – you are smarter than this. The scandal didn't break until Tuesday. Likely the majority of Americans didn't know about it until that night. If at all – a very small number on the 3rd may have heard about it.
Please go to my post (at bottom) to understanding the timing of news events on polls. – Don't Detrain the Cain Just Yet @ http://www.PolitiJim.com
He will get hit on this. But we won't know how bad until Monday or Tuesday. There will be some Sunday polls that come out that also will only partially reflect that. My analysis and predictions on the aforementioned post.
Jim, I realize that. The problem is that I'm not buying any of this until there's some evidence of substance. I want NAMED sources. I want definitive statements. I want to hear the testimony of the parties. I don't know if he'll get his too badly if people realize that until we have something concrete, this is just a hatchet job.
No one seems to address the fact that every time we here Cain speek on this we get a different story. It's never the act but the cover up. Can you belive him when he said he didn't know what the charges were before this came out. He has said he advised his past campaign about these charges so how can that be. Their are many, many of the instances. His manager has contridicted himself just this morning on Fox. To much lying going on here. Playing the Race card was not a good idea here either. We already have a President that will lie and play the Race card. Their is no doubt the media is trying to sink him but that is what they do. I don't rember any one on our side standing up for Anthony Weiner when his story first broke, I doubt that I missed it. I'm not ready to convict him right now but up to now I think he has caused most of his problems himself by not being consistant.
1 in 5? I've followed the numbers since day one and that is ALL Romney has ever and most likely WILL EVER have so there is absolutely no surprises here. He has hovered around 18-23 percent the whole time. Those are the establishment republicans who are as much like sheep as the far left.
Quit looking at this thing as repub/dem and look at it as conservative/lib. Forget the blasted parties since there is really only one party anyways.
…some people are always "targets"…..ever hear of "cry rape"???
Mark – good post. Regardless of this current potential controversy, Cain lost me a while back with some of his foreign policy statements and other areas.
I'm still praying for Sarah……..
Reb
Almost forgot – Cain has also gone to the "race" issue too often for me, with no real reason – both on things regarding him, as well as Perry.
That all is a major mistake for him as far as I am concerned.
Reb
Great Post Mark! You have been vindicated today with your skepticism about the whole smear campaign started by Pollutico. Guess some Palinistas forgot about that charitable name we gave it. Cain is able, Cain 2012!