Mr. L's Tavern
I enjoy Mr. L’s Tavern from time to time, because he’s original and unique, and while at times he is profane, I can’t help but enjoy his matter-of-fact style, with a bit of sarcasm. If you haven’t listened to his audio/video blogs, give it a try. This time, he warns the establishment about a brokered convention, and who they’d better come out of any smoke-filled room with if they are to have any chance to get the support of the rank-and-file.
I tend to agree. Check it out:
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crNokBSrJcM]
So who is running that has a record for standing up for the U.S. Constitution? Ron Paul didn't have the support last time around either. He has been building it from the grass roots for the last four years. Now he has the organization and the fund-raising capability to compete. He is still bucking the establishment as he has for the last 30+ years. How long did it take Reagan to build support? As I recall he too lost his first time around.
Sarah would be a great candidate if she had gotten into the race with the others when they did, and it might not be too late for her to have a shot. She said she didn't want to endure the attacks that she has endured over the last 3 years, but what about the people who love her? I think there are quite a bit more of those than on the other side, and the support from those people would be phenominal. But her window is closing fast. Very soon she would need the backing of the GOP in order to win, and as Mr. L said, the GOP establishment is not with an anti-establishment candidate, even if it means the death of the GOP.
Gosh I love Sarah, disappointed she decided not to run. Truth be told, I don't think she sounds like a candidate anymore. I think something has changed a bit. Her voice is not the smooth, clear, concise, confident voice we have heard over the last three years. She speaks nothing today like she did at the convention in 2008, or the debate with Biden..Maybe just on TV I notice it, her speeches are wonderful.
Am I wrong or did it feel like Sarah was going to run and something happened to change her mind? I know that Bristol had that confrontation in California, so I wonder if that, or some other incident, decided her not to run. I will never believe that she was stringing us along.
With all due respect to my Ron Paul friend "Dave" (above), he is suffering from a bit of the same misunderstanding as Mr. L is.
Yes Ron Paul has a great ground game, but he and his policies simply can not attract enough GOP voters to be nominated. His "10%" is more insurmountable than Romney's "25%" ceiling. Social conservatives love Israel to much to take a chance on leaving them undefended. That is almost 60% of the GOP now. (Which by the way is very close to the remaining allegiance left after Paul and Romney proponents).
And over estimating the support for Palin is a similar problem for Mr. L. There is no statistical proof that I've seen that Sarah has a guarantee of any more than 17% to 22% of the GOP. I suspect her entry would immediately drop Rick Santorum back to his 6% to 8% but even among Tea Partiers – Palin didn't get above 40% prior to her October 4th announcement.
Granted. less known (and more romanticized) Perry surged from 8% to 35% before he went oops, but Palin fans have got to understand that a significant portion of those who supported Perry and Cain have as negative of an opinion of her as they do Gingrich – or any other candidate.
Don't get me wrong, had she jumped in in October, I feel she likely would have taken Gingrich AND Santorum out of the race and would be in a virtual tie with Romney at this point – but let's not go too far out on this "unifying the party" idea. If there is ANYONE more hated by the GOP Establishment than Gingrich, It would be the former Governor of Alaska.
This was Reagan's brilliance in 1980. We have a working coalition of traditional GOP, Libertarians, social conservatives and fiscal conservatives. None of these groups have a single leader that is acceptable to the majority of the rest. In that weird way, Gingrich is more likely forge a cooperative entity only because he knows how to, and still has some pretty powerful friends to offer goodies to the rest. If Romney has 45% of the delegates come convention time, Paul can put him over the top and might, if Romney let him be (temporary) Fed Chairman. (I say temporary because Ron Paul would assume he would fire himself out of a job after closing the doors.).
Anything more than 35% to 40% of the delegates – and Mitt wouldn't need to (nor would he) give up the Presidency. Once you get under 25% Romney can be bought. However, Dick Morris claims that the new GOP structure of the primaries makes it virtually impossible for a brokered convention because there are too many "winner take all" states.
So it seems that if Mitt isn't stopped before Super Tuesday, when cumulatively 35% of all delegates will have been apportioned, no one could really keep him the nomination only because of his money and infrastructure.
Frankly, at this point, the longer Santorum stays in, the more likely a Romney nomination regardless of what Sarah does. Many have told me they think she doesn't want to undercut him and is waiting for him to make that decision.
In my opinion Palin's path to power will be in endorsing Gingrich to help him overcome the hurdle to battle Romney and accept a VP or a cabinet position like Department of Energy.
Her second best path would be to lead the patriots in the coming 2nd Revolutionary War following the Marxist takeover by Obama and SEIU where, upon victory like Washington, she would be instilled as the first President of the Re-United States of America..
Thanks. Sarah did say it's in the math. I'll take either path you suggested for her.