Brokered Convention Hopes: Too Good To Be True?

Overthinking It?

First, I’d thank Doug Brady at Conservatives4Palin for pointing out this story, because based on timing, I might have missed it otherwise.   Like everybody at C4P, he’s a great writer, so be sure to stop by there and check them out.  The Hill has an article today titled: A brokered convention: Jeb Bush vs. Sarah Palin.  His speculation centers around the idea that if Santorum and Newt remain competitive, with Ron Paul still grabbing delegates along the way, with half the delegates yielded by the early states to the National Party, there’s a very real possibility of a brokered convention so long as nobody manages to acquire the 1144 delegates needed to sew up the nomination before the convention.  It’s clear that this has been part of Romney’s worries all along, and it’s probably part of why Romney went full-bore after Gingrich in Florida. Just a few days before the Florida primary, Jeb Bush quietly suggested that he would not be making an endorsement after all, as many had expected him to endorse Romney in the days and weeks leading up to that  state’s primary.

There have been some who have been speculating that the tentative Bush family support of Romney is aimed at making Mitt Romney a placeholder for precisely such a move, whereby Jeb Bush could jump in via a brokered convention and walk away with the nomination.  While highly speculative, naturally, that remains a possibility. What Bernie Quigley’s article on The Hill proposes is that rather than just a Bush entry through a brokered convention, you might instead have Sarah Palin placed into the mix by virtue of her overwhelming support across a broad base of the party, a factor that was inescapable if you watched her speech at CPAC on Saturday.  Every one of the candidates did their best on Friday, with Newt Gingrich probably motivating the crowd most thoroughly among them, but the three rooms worth of overflow seating added for the Keynote speech on Saturday evinced a strong preference for the message of Sarah Palin.  She clearly and thoroughly rocked CPAC as I reported, and her performance there was stunning.  Quigley didn’t miss this either:

But as The Hill’s Josh Lederman reports from the CPAC conference, the former Alaska governor received far and away the most spirited and enthusiastic reception at the convention of about 10,000 conservative activists. She drew the audience to its feet more than a dozen times during her keynote address on Saturday.

“The cheers for Palin were so loud that they drowned out her remarks again and again,” he writes. “Conference organizers had to set up three overflow rooms to accommodate the throngs of supporters eager to hear her words.”

It’s self-evident: Palins performance Saturday led many to question whether the Republican Party is running the right candidate.  After all, as was apparent Saturday, none of the actual candidates at present fill an auditorium like Palin, and none of them were able to rouse their respective crowds in so engaging a manner.  Quigley’s speculation focuses on the idea that if we actually arrived at the Republican convention without having settled on a nominee, things could become exciting if Bush and Palin have their names dropped into the hat for possible selection. After all, Bush has solid support from his home state of Florida, but he’s also a Bush, which means that many simply won’t be willing to further a dynasty, and rightly so, I might add.  The other person who might get proposed would be Chris Christie, but I think Quigley’s right to point out that none would be more eligible with respect to the party faithful than Sarah Palin.

Quigley goes on to speculate about the possible combinations of nominees and their running mates, but I suspect that while entertaining and interesting, this sort of speculation is liable to give rise to false hopes about an unlikely set of events.  The conditions for this to occur would require that the delegate count would need to continue to be split up, denying Romney (or any of the others) the opportunity to obtain the needed 1144.  That may not be possible, as Romney’s advantage in cash makes him much more able to sustain a long campaign.  Still, it’s a fascinating study in “what-if” thinking, because if Quigley’s view turned out to be correct, it would certainly invigorate this race at a time when the party will need it most, particularly since this theory assumes that the convention will have commenced without a decided nominee.  The problem is that even if it went anything like what Quigley suggests, it wouldn’t be so easy as his abbreviated narrative might suggest.  Nothing is ever that easy in politics.

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17 Responses to Brokered Convention Hopes: Too Good To Be True?

  1. Terry says:

    Mark great article but it lacks one thought. What if Sarah does enter this race late as Santorum and Newt fade? She would most certainly cause a brokered convention grabbing votes from both Rick and Newt not to mention getting her own in some of the late primaries. I STILL maintain our next president will be Sarah Palin. Another article in C4P talks about the "door being opened that no man can close"… I would suggest that you read this if you have not already Terry

    • MarkAmerica says:

      Terry, Thank you. I'm well aware of "the door is open" and the allusion that phrase makes. I hope you're right, but I'm not willing to get my "panties in a wad"" over it. Yet.

      I'm sure there exists no shortage of people, myself included, who hope you are right.

      • Terry says:

        Thanks Mark, I FIRMLY believe that Sarah WILL NOT ALLOW Mitt to win this nomination without a "real" fight. If Newt and Rick get outspent by Mitt and he "buys" many more primaries I EXPECT Sarah to enter this race. She does NOT like Mitt and said as much with her statement about not allowing this nation to fall so help me God. If it becomes apparent that Rick nor Newt cannot take out Mitt then she will step forward. Mark my words. (no pun intended)

  2. Kathleen says:

    Pretty interesting article. I didn't know something like that could happen in a broker convention.

  3. Rogue Rose says:

    Please write a blog exposing Ron Paul's delegate strategy before it's too late. If we all don't get involved and fill those delegate slots we will be in for an unexpected surprise at our National Convention.

  4. Ron says:

    Sarah will rock in the convention.

  5. eyetooth tom says:

    "False hopes" you say…"to good to be true"…yep. I recall '89 when I was y'all's age, about 47…evil empire collapsed, Berlin wall crumbled down, freedom and democracy reigned, years of cold war over. World peace was at hand. Man, what a euphoric feeling, I mean really, like a high. But short lived. Reality prevailed, and other hidden and masked problems came about. Pehaps you're not as naive as I was, but I trusted all those years that we were right, even during bomb shelter training at school in the '50's. Still do.
    Don't get giddy over what you think is happening. Events may not be to your liking.
    Wish otherwise.

  6. I adorre Sarah, but when one such as her says NO, they mean NO! This needs to stop! The brokered convention is for andidates RUNNING, and i would not bet on it coming out too well. Sseeing the complete ballot stuffing that ovccurred and has occurred every year at CPAC, a brokered convention could go quite similarly!

    This looking back is not healthy, and is is demoralizing and defeating! The only if never wins. Play the hand you are dealt with gusto or get out of the game!

    • MarkAmerica says:

      Tamara, As always, I respect your opinion, but honestly, if people in the press are going to speculate on this kind of thing, I'm not going to ignore it. Also, there are those who would say that they're not looking back, but instead forward. Now, as you said, I have my doubts about how well a brokered convention could work out too, but then again, I am not sure I look at it as any worse than an "inevitable Mitt."

    • PalinSupporter2012 says:

      She said she was not running at the time. She knew that she would not be in fair fight and the left and some of the right will do anything they can to stop her. If she entered the race the focus would be all on her and no one else would have be vetted. She gave them what they wanted and that is for her to not enter the race and this allowed eleven to go for the nomination. The vetting has been hard but required and some have had to drop out due to the vetting. In the end if she was to enter the race or be selected at a convention she should not be faulted since everyone else has had their chance to rise to the top. BTW, you say the brokered convention is for the ones running … do you think they would prevent the elite from offering up Jeb or Mitch or even Christie over Sarah? As I said, they will do ANYTHING to keep their power. Do you honestly think they care about Romney? It is all about keeping the power and keeping the conservatives out. They are just hoping the conservatives go away. Did you notice how Jeb, Mitch and Christie and Haley were not at CPAC. The CPAC convention must be too conservative for them.

    • PalinSupporter2012 says:

      Just for example, do you think it is by accident that the timing of the release of the last hit book about her or the release of the new movie on HBO? The were created in anticipation of her being in the race and to try to take her down. Since she is not in the race they will fester for a few days and then go away since they are false. She has thrown off the timing of their smear campaign against her. It will be up to her to decide if she enters late and tries to go to a brokered convention. It will her choice and in her time. In the end she may just sacarifice her bid and work only on the down ticket. Again, it will be her choice and her time.

  7. jerseyflash says:

    A friend of mine was at Sarah's CPAC speech…what happened after her speech was more mind-bending then her speech…she walked into the crowd ( With the muscle )…and touched people, signed things and took pictures for almost an hour…as he has told me…he heard people say that " this is the only person that can save this country "

    I will say it again…I will x-hale when the fat lady sings

    Palin/West 2012 and 2016

  8. Angela Hale says:

    So many people are still angry with her for not running that I'm not sure she'd have the support any more. If she would help one of them (preferably Newt) that would make me a happy camper. She has to know that Romney is destroying everyone with his money, lies and help from the media (the same thing will happen to him if he gets the nomination, btw) and she doesn't talk like she's a Romney fan
    Well, I, too have speculated that the goal all along has been to get Jeb Bush or Chris Christy as the nominee. You can tell any and all who will listen, I'll not vote for any of the three. Romney, Bush, Christy and the establishment GOP can kiss my disenfranchised backside.

  9. Stand Taker says:

    I'm very confident Sarah Palin will be our president.

    Just don't know if 2012 or 2016.

    Surely the Lord won't stand by and let Obama enslave us for 4 more. Hoping 2012 is the election He's chosen for her to win.

  10. RebinTexas says:

    Good article as is the one you referenced from The Hill. Angela – I know exactly how you feel about the establishment elite GOP – I feel much the same……and will be in quite a quandary if the gop nominee is one of them or someone similar……..for while I feel as you do, I also hate the thought of allowing bho the chance of another term.

    Actually – I fear that either option will take our beloved country that much closer to its doom. I pray everyday that We The People still have time and that God will guide US. I'm also praying that somehow Sarah does get in………..she is, imho, the "best man for the job".

  11. Brian Dani says:

    Sarah and many others realize that this election means the survival of the USA. With this knowledge one would not expect a normal election cycle with so much at stake. Could Sarah enter the race? Certainly! I would expect her to if she felt that the right candidate was not in the selection. This pondering and questioning her position is nonsense. I am confident she will do what is necessary to restore our republic and rid our government of the corrupt. Either from the inside or the outside she will be a force that enables this. I would prefer her as our leader, but will know with confidence that she is working behind the scene to accomplish this.

  12. Pat Cashman says:

    All the mire reason for Sarah to jump in. If she were to jump in just before Super Tuesday, there is no way anyone would accumulate 1144. Unless she does it herself, of course. I'm hoping that she is watching Santorum closely. If he and Newt, who us falling by the wayside, can keep up the pace, she won't need to jump just yet. I trust her judgement. As far as Bush goes, I'm with you. TOO SOON. W has been vetted again possibly more than the candidates. Who hasn't learned s thing or two about him lately?