Will he fold?
My friend and self-described “brother-from-another-mother” Youtube star Mr. L, of Mr. L’s Tavern described it correctly today. In a discussion of the choice facing President Trump with the entire Red Flag Law/Gun Control agenda, he correctly pointed to the fact that the President has made too many promises with too much resolute vigor to retreat at this late date. To do so risks certain alienation of a substantial portion of his loyal base. In 1990, in the midst of a negotiation with Democrats over the budget, President George H.W. Bush went along with the Democrats on a luxury tax and a number of other items. It resulted in a shallow recession, but more importantly, it meant that he had forsaken his 1988 promise to Republicans: “Read my lips, NO NEW TAXES!” In 1992, Democrats, who had shoved the taxes down his throat because THEY had wanted them, took the occasion of his tax increases to hang the entire albatross around his neck. Ross Perot and Bill Clinton mocked him endlessly. The Democrats attacked and attacked. Most importantly, however, the base of the GOP abandoned him. It could even be said that the portion of the party that abandoned the elder Bush would come to be the Trump wing of the party. In the same way, in 2015-16, Donald Trump promised repeatedly to protect your second amendment rights. No small number of conservatives supported him on this basis alone. Here we stand in 2018, and Donald Trump’s “Read My Lips” moment has arrived, just as Mr. L has described. Well, President Trump? Will he fail us as George H.W. Bush and so many other ordinary politicians have done in the past? We will find out in due course, naturally, but I don’t believe there’s any way for Mr. Trump to avoid his “Read My Lips” moment, and the Democrats and NeverTrump Republicans know it.
It’s why they’re pushing him so hard. It’s not so much a problem that conservatives will find another candidate, as they will simply stay home, unwilling to support him. Donald Trump should fear that, because it’s what ultimately killed McCain and Romney in their bids for the presidency. Too many conservatives stayed home.
If he goes along with all of this, that’s just what I’m going to do.
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