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Archive for the ‘Poll’ Category
Debunking Stupid Ideas in Mainstream Media
Tuesday, December 10th, 2013
Bloviating Zone
Seldom is there a shortage of stupid, insipid, vapid ideas in the mainstream media, but lately, it’s coming from every direction. I was watching the idiot at 8pm(Eastern) on the diminishing network that is Fox News, when he promoted an upcoming segment featuring Michele Bachmann(R-MN.) The segment has not yet played, and I’m not really interested in anything this perpetual TV dipstick has to say, so I was not surprised at the vacuous formulation of his segment, based on a recent McClatchy-Marist poll: “Why are the American people still more dis-satisfied with Republicans than Democrats?” Let me suggest an answer that refuses to evade the obvious, irrespective of what Bachmann may or may not say in response, and howsoever the bloviating 8pm-er may otherwise characterize it. It’s really a simple math problem, and it’s time we ask goof-balls like O’Reilly to understand mathematics. There is one reason Republicans are doing more poorly in Congressional approval polls, and it is not because they’re not moderate enough. In fact, it’s just the opposite.
Various surveys tell us that roughly 20-25 percent of the populace considers itself liberal. As much as 42 percent consider themselves conservative. The rest consider themselves mushy moderates and independents. Let me suggest that we break this up into a simpler math question: If 33 percent of respondents approve of Democrats in Congress, that is roughly equivalent to the number of avowed liberals and a portion of the “moderates” who are simply embarrassed liberals hoping to maintain some semblance of non-partisan cover. The rest of the country hates the Democrats, including some actual moderates. Meanwhile, the same 33 percent can be counted on to hate the Republicans. One might then think that since 40-45 percent of the populace considers themselves conservative, Republicans would gain the benefit. Actually, it’s not like this at all. You see, since Republicans register around 25 percent approval, let us then admit that the group most likely to be adding to disapproval of Republicans isn’t the moderates, but instead, the conservatives. 42 percent plus 33 percent equals 75 percent. While I am confident there will be some instances in which this isn’t precisely true, the obvious answer is that the Democrats are disapproved less because their own core constituents support them relentlessly. In contrast, conservatives who constitute the core of the Republican constituency are as unhappy with Republicans as liberals are. Only squishy moderates like O’Reilly support Republicans.
This is not difficult math, so simple in fact, that even a mindless dolt like O’Reilly should be able to figure it out. The problem is, however, that it’s only easy to see if one is willing to see it. O’Reilly isn’t willing to see anything that contradicts the DC orthodoxy. When O’Reilly implies that it’s all because Republicans are too immoderate, he’s evading the truth, because it’s not a truth he wants to purvey. If the Republicans in Congress were interested in getting a better approval rating, they wouldn’t push ridiculous “bi-partisan” budget deals like the one now being offered by Paul Ryan(R-WI) and his Senate counterpart, the estimable Patty Murray(D-WA.) Conservatives are rightly disgusted with this and other deals, and the explicit unwillingness of Congressional Republicans to fight. 42 percent plus 33 percent equals 75 percent. Mathematical wizardry is not required. All one needs is a commitment to the simple truth, and that’s something Bill O’Reilly plainly lacks.
(Editor’s Note: Apparently, the math escaped Bachmann too, because her explanation turned out to be that the media is against Republicans, which while true, doesn’t answer the heart of the question.)
The Post-Shutdown Poll in Which You’ll Want to Participate
Thursday, October 17th, 2013
Ladies and gentlemen, I am conducting a survey of sorts. I intend to mail its results to the politicians in Washington DC. Naturally, some of them will dismiss it as some “Internet Poll,” but I would really like as much participation as you can generate. It consists of a few questions, some to get your background, and some to see if we can discern a pattern.
The survey is anonymous, and I am collecting no personal information, but you will only be able to take the survey once. You must click “Vote” after each question.
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The Freedom Party? Hell Yes! (Video and Poll)
Sunday, June 30th, 2013
Freedom Party?
As readers of this blog know well, many conservatives are fuming over the GOP’s sell-out on immigration, but the truth is that the betrayals have been far more numerous than this single issue. Since taking back the House in 2011, mostly powered by Tea Party vigor, the Republican Party has been unresponsive to the concerns and legislative priorities of conservatives generally. There’s no need to recite the litany of betrayals here, but with immigration and the budget as well as debt ceiling surrenders, the GOP hasn’t been carrying out its mandate to obstruct Barack Obama’s agenda to fundamentally transform the United States. On FoxNews, near the close of a segment on America’s News Headquarters, Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin answered a Twitter question from Josh Painter about the possibility of breaking away from the Republican Party along with Mark Levin to form something he called provisionally the “Freedom Party:”
As a matter of full disclosure, while I haven’t met fellow Texan Josh Painter, he is indeed a friend of this blog and many of you will be familiar with his web site. His question was not surprising, because his tweets over time indicate his own heightened disgust with the GOP establishment and the betrayals they have heaped upon the conservative base. Governor Palin answered the question, making plain her own dissatisfaction with the manner in which the Republican Party has been ignoring the will of common sense conservatives. Here is that response(H/T Daily Caller):
It’s clear from her response that she too is feeling betrayed by the GOP in Washington DC, and in truth, Gov. Palin has had to fight against corruption in the Republican Party through much of her political career. It’s no coincidence that she finds favor among the conservative base that so dutifully supports the GOP often times for a lack of better options. Should the moment arrive that conservatives finally decide to abandon the GOP, I suspect Gov. Palin would be among the first to break ranks simply because like so many of us, she does possess that independent, slightly libertarian streak that courses through most real conservatives. A party named for its primary object makes sense to me, and apparently, to Gov. Palin too. Whether a break-away party materializes, we must be prepared to move to support it because quite bluntly, the GOP has been unwilling to move in our direction despite the fact that when conservatives run as conservatives, they win. Combining the intransigence of the Republican Party with its long string of abuses and betrayals of its conservative base, abandoning it may be the only rational choice conservatives may now make.
Painter’s idea of a “Freedom Party” is right up my own alley. I have discussed this sort of thing, and the idea of a political party seeking to re-establish liberty in America is more than a little attractive to me. For too long, we have suffered at the hands of two political parties that seem too often to be extensions of one another rather than actual opponents on an ideological or cultural field of battle. As is clear from the title of this posting, you know my feelings on the matter, but I’d like to gauge yours with a brief poll:
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Poll: Was the Fluke Fiasco a Set-up?
Monday, March 5th, 2012
Whether Rush Limbaugh was the target or not, many are wondering if this entire charade with Sandra Fluke has been a well-conceived and perfectly-executed set-up. Some have conjectured that the real target had been Santorum, but that Limbaugh tripped the snare first. Do you think this is pure opportunism on the part of the left or is it a perfectly executed plot? I wonder if they’re more lucky in this case than smart.
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Are Conservatives Satisfied With the Field?
Monday, February 6th, 2012
Is There A Better Choice?
I’ve written enough about this subject to paper the bottom of an industrial size aviary, but I’m intrigued by the question, and I wonder how the readers at this site feel about the question. It’s clear that there is significant dissatisfaction among Republicans in general, conservatives in particular, and no small measure of discomfort among Tea Party folk. Today, I read a blog post by a friend who assesses the situation, and simply concluded that we’re in trouble if we don’t come up with another solution to the problem. He rightly points out that Romney surely cannot win, but that there’s not a great deal more hope for any of the others. My friend isn’t long on words, but he’s generally spot-on, and you might wish to take a look at his article here. His contention is simple: Get another candidate or prepare to inaugurate Barack Obama for a second term in January, 2013.
I certainly don’t like to seem pessimistic, but I think given all we’ve discussed here over the last week, we’d be foolish to ignore the matter and pretend it isn’t a problem. There are those who would broom this entire field, and there are those who would sweep all but one away, but in fact, it’s my contention that there’s such significant dissatisfaction that the GOP will have a hard time rousing the base this fall, if the nominee comes from among this group. While I find Newt Gingrich most able of these, that isn’t to say the electorate will agree, but I maintain that Mitt Romney simply cannot get it done because his strategy relies far too heavily on a cash advantage he will not have over Barack Obama, and he spends a good deal of his time avoiding his relevant history and record when he was Governor of Massachusetts.
Whatever you may think of this field, I’d like to survey your opinion. Feel free to leave comments in this thread in further explanation of your responses, and if you would support another candidate if they were to enter soon, who would that candidate be? (Please place in the comments section below.) Here’s the question:
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Donald Trump’s Endorsement: Does It Matter To You? Poll
Thursday, February 2nd, 2012
Does He Matter?
There has been a lot of discussion in the last day over Donald Trump’s endorsement, and who might get it, if he gives one at all. All that is know is that “The Donald” has decided to make some sort of announcement from Las Vegas, Nevada this evening. Rather than play the speculation game going gang-busters in the media, I have an important question for readers, and it’s a relatively simple one:
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Florida Poll – Election Eve
Monday, January 30th, 2012
I have two questions for you in this evening’s poll.
Please answer them both.
No double voting!
I will be comparing this data with South Carolina data, and I will report to you any shifts in the support of the candidates.
Thank you for participating!
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A Note on Bogus Polling
Sunday, January 29th, 2012
Which Polls To Trust?
I’ve heard from a few people really concerned about the polling in Florida, showing Gingrich down, and Romney up, which seems at least in part to be contradicted by the sense of things on the ground. I am going to show you how a poll can be twisted, and how you can’t trust them, and if you allow them to form your opinion, you can actually be manipulated. Let’s start with a very popular poll, the PPP(Public Policy Polling) outfit that currenty shows Romney leading 40% to 32%.
In this poll, when you read to the bottom of the page and examine the data, you discover the following:
“The PPP poll surveyed 387 likely Florida Republican primary voters on January 28th with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.”(emphasis mine)
Ladies and gentlemen, when you see ANY poll with such a small sample size, it’s GARBAGE. When you see any poll with a margin of error of more than 3%, it’s likely garbage, particularly if it has a small sample size. For a state as large and diverse as Florida, any poll that doesn’t survey at least 1500 people, with a margin of error well below 4% is a poll intended to generate a headline and drive you.
Now, here’s their insurance: With a margin of error of 5%, if you add that to Gingrich, and subtract it from Romney, this poll may actually tell you nothing, because Gingrich could in fact be leading. This kind of poll is GARBAGE as any serious analyst will tell you, and worse, when you see so-called analysts on television referencing such polls, you know they are LYING to you because as trained professionals, THEY ABSOLUTELY KNOW BETTER.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to “shout” at you, but I am disgusted with the media manipulation, as they try to create some false momentum in Romney’s direction. You should let others know this too. 387 people? Really? A margin of error of 5%??? That’s a potential 10-point swing in either direction, which gives them cover if their pushing doesn’t work out, but also helps them create a theme.
Don’t believe such polls. They are intended to mislead you. I have rejected four such polls from publication on this site in the last month because they were this egregious.
Gallup: Gingrich Leading Nationally
Saturday, January 28th, 2012
New Poll: Gingrich Leading Nationally
Despite millions and millions spent on attack ads against him in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and now Florida, Gingrich is holding onto a lead in national polling. Of course, the problem at present is in Florida, where millions of dollars in negative ads are hammering him relentlessly with many out-of-context quotes, and again seeking to attack him personally. I realize the advertising game goes both ways to some extent, but let’s be honest enough with ourselves to admit that when you look at the amount of cash being heaped into media buys in this race, only one candidate has the sort of resources necessary to flood the airwaves. Gingrich leads 32%-24% over Romney.
Of course, at present, no place polled is quite as important as Florida, with the impending primary about to kick off in that state, but the truth is that due to early voting, it’s been underway right along. If conservatives in that state don’t band together to defeat Romney, the media will paint this as more momentum for Mitt, and the talk of “inevitable” will begin anew. I don’t think that should happen, but will happen may be another matter. One thing this poll point out is that Gingrich may be doing well nationally, but the influence of such overwhelming establishment manipulations as have been ongoing in Florida may make it insurmountable.
New Poll: Gingrich Leads in Florida
Monday, January 23rd, 2012
In a confirmation of the South Carolina results, at least for the moment, Gingrich is leading in Florida. It remains to be seen if this will hold through the Florida primary next week, but at present, it seems Newt Gingrich is leading, and the Rasmussen Poll released this morning points to a surge on Newt’s behalf.
From the Rasmussen poll results:
“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.”
This is good news for Gingrich, because it suggests that if he can maintain this lead, and capture even a portion of the undecideds, he can defeat Romney irrespective of any edge Romney may find among undecideds. Of course, there are two debates between now and the primary, the first Monday night, but if Gingrich can pull off a win in either, he will tend to confirm what voters think. Expectations are part of the debate game, however, and Gingrich’s excellent performances last week have set what may be an unreasonably high bar. Nobody can be on the top of their game every time out.
South Carolina Poll Results: And the Winner Is…
Saturday, January 21st, 2012
Palmetto State Poll
As the polls close in South Carolina, and we wait to find out about the returns, we have a clear winner in our own poll. This suggests good things for Newt Gingrich tonight, but because this poll is a small, unscientific sample, it may not be representative of anything beyond the readership of this site, and I do note there seems to be a definite bias there, based on comments. I also learned a lesson: I should have kept the poll a sticky post to keep it at the top, because the number of respondents diminished rapidly once it went further down, and then off the front page. My apologies for that.
Here are the results(of all of them, I find the last question’s result the most interesting:)
South Carolina Primary: Poll
Saturday, January 21st, 2012Palmetto State Polls
As voters in the Palmetto State head to the polls on Saturday morning, I thought it would be interesting to put up a some poll questions, not only for South Carolinians, but for readers generally. Obviously, there’s quite a lot at stake in this small southern state, but given the media focus on the contest, and all the controversies that have surrounded it, size seems not to be an issue. Candidates have been pressing the flesh and volunteers have been working overtime, as the media bombardment of advertising has hit an all-time record, not only in the sheer volume of it, but also in terms of the content. By many accounts, this has been one of the nastiest campaigns people on the ground in South Carolina can remember.
Many will be happy when this day comes and goes, so their phones will stop ringing with robo-calls and their mailboxes will contain anything other than the SuperPAC junk mail that has been flooding the state. Finally, they’ll be able to turn on the television without being bombarded by political ads,and we will know who this state has chosen.
Here are three poll questions for you, and I will reveal the results after the polls close in South Carolina.
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